The word clutch has become a parody of itself. Pretty soon basketball arguments will consist solely of one person shouting “Clutch!” and another screaming “Not Clutch! Choker!”. That word and the qualities that are supposed be inherent within it seem to elicit a hyena-like mentality rather than any form of cogent analysis or discussion.

Look, I’m not saying that clutch play doesn’t exist. I’m also not saying that some players feel the pressure of the moment while others remain largely unaffected. (Confidence is just about the most important thing one can have in sports or any walk of life.) What I am saying is that boiling every late game success or failure down to whether someone is clutch or not is impossibly myopic.

There is this mentality out there where great and more importantly, clutch athletes possess some innate super power to will the right outcome in a pressure situation. Let’s take the free throw line as an easy example. Clutch players are never supposed to miss an important foul shot. When they do, they choked. Is it ever possible they just missed? (All of them have.) Someone who is an 80% free throw shooter over a season is likely to hit that mark over time. If they miss two consecutive clutch free throws, chances are they may hit their next several consecutive clutch attempts. They’re likely to wind up around 80%. Again, that doesn’t mean the moment won’t cause some guys to tighten up; it’s just impossible to quantify and people seem to single out the players they want to label as chokers.

My other problem with this clutch obsession is that it has instilled an idea in the NBA that the best player must take the important shot…no matter what. Designating a last-shot taker is ridiculous. You are making the other team’s job easier (they know who to guard) and your best player’s job more difficult (he is loaded up on). And now that best player is also faced with a culture that believes he should pull up over a double team rather than finding an open teammate. Huh? (This viewpoint also tends to assume the rest of the game outside the last two minutes doesn’t count.)

I could see a counter argument if the above method wasn’t statistically proven to be extremely ineffective. It is tough to score in those situations, for anyone. Since 1996-1997, Kobe Bryant, considered by many to be the most clutch player out there, has shot just a hair over 30% when trailing by one or two or tied in the final 24 seconds of a game. I’m sure he’d be the first to tell you that he wouldn’t have a handful of rings if not for the likes of Robert Horry and Derek Fisher hitting clutch buckets.

Kobe’s missed big shots. So has Michael Jordan. Just like Tom Brady’s thrown key interceptions and Derek Jeter’s struck out in huge spots. Not every failure in pressure moments is choking, just like not every success is rising to the occasion. Do people how realize how stupid it is to simplify it to such a degree? (I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!)

Obviously, the case study for all this talk is LeBron James. And LeBron has had some performances that warrant the choker label. Last year’s NBA Finals and game five against Boston two years ago being the chief examples. There is no defense for how nonexistent he was for stretches in those games and it is easy to understand why many would dub him mentally weak as a result.

But failure is easy to find when it’s the only thing you are looking for. LeBron’s had plenty of performances that warrant the opposite label. Historically, he’s been statistically excellent in what the NBA dubs as “Clutch Time” (the last five minutes of a five point game). In this postseason alone he’s already had a 17 and a 16 point fourth quarter. Then there was shutting the door on Boston and Chicago last year down the stretch of games, that whole scoring 29 of his team’s final 30 against the Pistons in ‘07 and the fact that he’s hit a better percentage on game tying or game winning shots in the playoffs than clutch-master-mamba Kobe Bryant.

The point is, the analysis is not so cut and dry. That’s why to me, clutch has become a dirty word. Every time I hear it used the way it currently is, I want to give up. Kind of like LeBron in a high pressure situation.

It was the night before the Super Bowl. I was at Madison Square Garden. The Nets were in town and Mike D’Antoni’s job was rumored to be on the line (that just got delayed). It was the birth of Linsanity.

As I watched Jeremy Lin repeatedly drive by Deron Williams and get into the lane, I was thinking to myself, I have to be here for the next game; I have to make sure that was real. Sure enough, it continued and the next two weeks were amongst the most fun sports stories I can remember.

It’d be awesome to attempt to recreate that. However, it’d be Linsane (sorry). Let’s forget about Jeremy Lin the story for a second. Let’s focus on Jeremy Lin the player. Because it seems like he has become more of a narrative than a human being at this point.

Jeremy Lin has missed more than five weeks following knee surgery. His game is predicated on explosive movements and cuts. (I’ve always said Lin’s number one attribute is his first step and ability to get into the lane and attack the basket.) In order for him to be effective, he has to have full trust that his knee is sound. How could he at this point? Expecting him to swoop in, make a rusty return and have an impact against the Miami Heat in their building is absolutely asinine (asLINine?).

Also, Lin has his future to worry about. As he should. Here’s a guy who wasn’t drafted, was cut by multiple teams and who was unsure about his future in the NBA just a few months ago. Don’t forget, the Knicks were on the verge of cutting him too. He doesn’t owe them anything. (In fact, the opposite is true. He generated a ton of money and could do so in the future, yet another reason not to risk his health. That and the whole he could be your starting point guard next year thing.) Is it really reasonable to expect him to jeopardize the health of his knee and a possible payday around $20 million when he’s nowhere near 100%?

Think about this situation logically for a second. In what scenario do the rewards of activating Lin outweigh the risks? Do any of those scenarios include the Knicks coming all the way back to beat the Heat? That line of thinking is delusional. Bringing a hobbled Lin back just to participate in tonight’s likely gentleman’s sweep in Miami would be about the most shortsighted thing I could possibly imagine.

The Knicks finally ended their playoff losing streak. It’s time to look to the future. And that future does not include a miraculous comeback in this series.

I was watching SportsCenter and some hockey highlights came on (I know, weird right?). I just had the TV on as wallpaper but something caught my eye, and not in a good way. It was a fight. A fight that wasn’t as much entertaining as it was silly. One that made its sport look like a joke.

I immediately tweeted out, “Fighting in hockey is the stupidest thing I’ve ever seen.” The hockey cult took umbrage to that remark. Replies started pouring in ranging from, “it’s a part of the game”, to “your stupid” (notice the irony in the fact that no one online seems to be able to properly conjugate you are). People were ready to check me into the boards.

Let me address the part of the game argument. Yes, it has been a part of the game. But is it a good part of the game? Doesn’t the fighting culture allow guys into the league who are more goons than they are quality players? Doesn’t that damage the quality of play? Plus, how does fighting impact the game other than resulting in players being put on timeout?

Then there’s the people watch for the fights argument. If true, that is a huge problem. First, because I’m sure the league would like viewers to tune in for entertaining games, not amateur fisticuffs. Second, and even more problematic, not that many people watch. I don’t mean to take a cheap shot but the fact is that NHL ratings are not in the same stratosphere as those of the NFL, NBA or MLB, to name a few examples. So saying people watch for the fights holds no weight.

Also, I think there may be some racial undertones involved with the acceptance of fighting in hockey. Would it be as celebrated in an organized team sport that isn’t predominantly white? I often hear hockey fights and even baseball brawls referred to as fun. However, when a basketball player shoves another, the word thug tends to be thrown out.

Look, I’m no hockey expert and I don’t want to come off as preachy. But despite not being an avid hockey consumer, I appreciate the speed, skill and athleticism involved in the game. I simply believe fighting takes away from it. And recently, the most interest I’ve seen from the casual fan regarding the sport came during the Olympics. No fighting there.

I keep hearing that Tim Tebow is a great football player. I also keep hearing the Jets made a terrible mistake in acquiring him. Those two sentences don’t make sense consecutively.

If the Jets acquired Tebow to steal attention from the Giants, it’s a mistake. But if they picked him up to properly utilize him, it could work. Their offensive coordinator ran a successful wildcat formation in Miami with Ronnie Brown. Maybe Tebow doesn’t throw like an elite quarterback, however, he certainly passes better than a typical running back.

And now all the sudden everybody is worried about Mark Sanchez’ psyche? There were people who wanted to wake Mark Brunell up from a nap to put him in the game over Sanchize last year. Wasn’t it going to be worse this year no matter who was behind him? It’s up to Sanchez to bury that talk, not the organization. Play well and it goes away.

Plus, who says that Sanchez has to be the starter and Tebow the backup? Ideally the Jets defy convention. There’s no rule that says you can’t play two quarterbacks. Why not a wildcat-esque package for Tebow and a more traditional package for Sanchez? And God forbid (couldn’t leave God out of a Tebow piece) installing sets that utilize both. There’s no team in a better position to do so. Tebow has his limitations as a passer and Sanchez doesn’t have the gravitas to complain.

Going by the book all the time is silly to me. In baseball guys are dubbed closers and as a result, teams sometimes don’t utilize their best relief pitcher when he’s needed because it isn’t his proper time to come into the game. Lunacy. The same thing would hold true for naming Sanchez first string and Tebow second string simply due to convention.

Tebow’s an unconventional player. Use him that way. And if he does prove to be the better option at quarterback, what do the Jets have to lose? (Other than Mark Sanchez’ confidence?)

This is not a Mike D’Antoni defense piece. If D’Antoni had been fired after last year’s playoffs, I would’ve thought it a bit unfair but wouldn’t have batted an eye. And if D’Antoni was canned after the Knicks 8-15 start, I would’ve understood. He had up until that point failed to win with the combination of Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire.

But then something happened. Linsanity, you may have heard of it. Something we are all apparently supposed to ignore now. Personally, I can’t ignore the team’s level of play during that time period, nor the sheer joy they obviously felt while playing. I also refuse to dismiss it as a total fluke.

I was there for Jeremy Lin’s breakout game. It wasn’t what he did, it was how he did it. I had to be in the building the next game to make sure what I saw was real. Well, it continued for a nine game stretch. It appeared that the Knicks had struck oil. A team devoid of a point guard had found one who was cheap, through a unique combination of factors was a marketing dream and who just happened to be a perfect fit for their coach’s system. They were playing well and nothing on Earth was more fun to watch.

Then Melo returned. I wasn’t one of those guys who thought he would mess it up. No, I was pondering just how good the team could become. After all, they were essentially replacing Billy Walker with Carmelo Anthony. As Lin’s production would inevitably come down, Carmelo would pick up the slack and do what he was brought in to do.

Well, it didn’t work out that way. Not at all. The numbers are staggering. Excluding Wednesday’s win over Portland, since 2/20 the Knicks averaged 109.8 points per 100 possessions with Anthony on the bench, 97.6 per 100 with him on the floor. And that’s not all. They allowed 107.1 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor and just 95.1 per 100 with him sitting. The team was significantly better both offensively and defensively without him. That is not my opinion, that is a fact.

Those numbers cannot be brushed aside, particularly when you couple them with what I was watching. Maybe Mike D’Antoni’s system was not the right fit for Melo. But I’m not sure he ever tried to fit it. I watched a guy who was not giving his all. A guy who refused to dive for loose balls, who didn’t run back hard on defense, who seemingly deliberately broke the scheme in what amounted to somewhat of an on court mutiny. And that’s not even factoring in his mannerisms and body language. He said all the right things without ever backing them up with the correct actions.

It was painfully obvious that he was the one guy not buying into D’Antoni’s system. Even more obvious that he and D’Antoni were not going to coexist. And it was relayed to me that Carmelo would do things like skip shootaround and hit the showers before D’Antoni addressed the team following a game. Those are not the actions of a superstar.

Forgetting superstar actions, he has also lacked superstar production (if that title even befits him), far from it. As of now, Anthony is averaging a career low in points per game and field goal percentage and is producing at a paltry rate in isolation plays, the type of plays he has apparently been craving. He has played poorly, plain and simple.

Perhaps, this change was needed. Mike Woodson has preached the word accountability, something Mike D’Antoni was never good at enforcing. D’Antoni just expected guys to do to the right thing, a player’s coach in the truest sense, as in a way, he allowed the player’s to coach themselves. Which doesn’t work when one of your best players is setting a bad example. Perhaps a more regimented system, a tougher coach, one that he feels believes in him more than the previous one is what Carmelo and the team required.

Although, I think it’s just as likely that Melo is simply not as good as advertised. Something I always feared. I hoped a move to the team and city of his choice would maximize his talents. After all, he was a part of 50-win Denver teams and he did win a Gold Medal and a National Championship. I feared he was simply a volume scorer who doesn’t bring much else to the table. A player with an attitude that would remind many of the Stephon Marbury era Knicks. A star in name only.

It’s now time for Melo to show and prove. He has no more excuses. Otherwise, we may look back at all this as the time when the Knicks struck oil and plugged the hole themselves. Because when Mike D’Antoni and the team parted ways, the Knicks elected to put all their eggs in the Carmelo Anthony basket. You just hope when it’s all said and done, there are still some eggs left.

Here goes (1-1 for Conference Championships, 7-3 for playoffs, 135-122-1 on season)…

Giants (+3) over Patriots: My head says Giants. My gut says Pats. The G-Men are rolling. They have the better defense. They are as close as you can get at quarterback. And there’s a chance Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz totally dominate the New England secondary. After all, those guys are a big step up in class from the Broncos and Ravens air attacks. Still, something feels wrong about the confidence surrounding New York. The Patriots were 13-3. They still have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Their defense is improving and not nearly as bad as people are making it out to be. And they never beat themselves. I’m extremely tempted to go that way but I’ll stick with my initial logic and go with the Madden result, a lot of work goes into that game, they have to know better than me…Giants 27 Pats 24.

Off to Indy…

I see a rematch brewing (3-1 last week, 6-2 for the playoffs, 134-121-7 on the season)…

Giants (+2.5) over 49ers: If you read my post a couple entries below, you’d know who I’m taking in this game. The 49ers are an excellent team all around. They went 13-3, weren’t blown out all season and beat the Saints in the playoffs; that speaks for itself. However, the Giants are playing like a borderline dominant team right now. They’ve taken four consecutive must-win games by a combined score of 121-50. They dominated the 15-1 Packers and their historic passing attack. I’m just not sure what San Francisco does better at the moment (other than have the edge in the kicking game). As good as the Niners defense is, they narrowly defeated New Orleans despite getting five turnovers and Drew Brees still managed to throw for 462 yards and four scores. I think the Giants are the better team.

Patriots (-7.5) over Ravens: Much like New York, I believe New England has improved as the season has gone along, particularly on the defensive side. Meanwhile, the Ravens have a stout D but I don’t think its a special one. And then there’s the Tom Brady-Joe Flacco matchup.

I frankly cannot believe the level the New York Giants are currently playing at. It was just several weeks ago when I thought they weren’t of much greater quality than the Washington Redskins. Then they lost to the Redskins (for the second time this season). That was the end of the slightly above average Giants team.

Something happened after that game. Actually, many things happened. It would be too convenient to attach one reason for such a drastic improvement. In the Helen Keller movie I watched in school, Helen was having trouble learning due to her handicaps and her teachers were growing frustrated. Until her instructor signed water into Helen’s palm while holding her hand under a pump. I think it would be too simplistic to define one such breakthrough moment for this Giants team.

This was a group that was dead-last in rushing offense, 27th in total defense and 25th in scoring defense. Simply put, they weren’t very good. However, those statistics are no longer relevant. Through some combination of playing the Packers tough in the regular season, getting healthy at the right time (perhaps the most important detail), winning the much hyped New York bowl (probably the singular psychological factor I would point to), beating Dallas in an elimination game and steam-rolling through the Falcons, the Giants became a beast of a squad.

The Packers were 15-1 and didn’t belong on the field with them. Aaron Rodgers and a historically great passing attack got crushed despite having an incredibly favorable call go their way. They were inferior. Just like every other team might be.

The San Francisco 49ers have a great defense but the Giants D is playing at an elite level right now. After all, they held Atlanta and Green Bay to a combined 22 points. And with the way Eli Manning is playing and the weapons he has on the outside, their offense can go toe-to-toe with anybody.

As a team, they believe if they play their game, they can’t lose. I’m not sure they will. The only team I’m uncertain they are better than is New England. I think that’s where we’re headed; a rematch of one of the more memorable Super Bowls ever.

Tebow, Tebow, Tebow. Just trying to meet my quota (131-120-7 on the season)…

49ers (+4) over Saints: We are enamored with the Saints because we just saw them dust Detroit. But the Lions were allergic to tackling, San Fran isn’t. The Lions also dropped some sure interceptions, San Fran won’t. New Orleans is virtually unbeatable in their dome but outside of it, they’ve lost games to the Rams and Bucs. The 49ers are built for this and as long as they don’t turn the ball over, I like them to win outright.

Broncos (+13.5) over Patriots: I refuse to doubt Tebow anymore. And Denver was good enough to build an early lead last time these two played. If they are aggressive, they’ve got a shot. However, the Patriots have shown they could care less about playing from behind (49 straight against Buffalo a few weeks ago). I’ll take the Pats by ten.

Texans (+7.5) over Ravens: The only major advantage Baltimore has is at quarterback and Joe Flacco’s performance this year has been questionable at best.

Giants (+7.5) over Packers: Perhaps my judgment is clouded having just seen the Giants, while Green Bay is more out of sight, out of mind. But there was a time when the G-Men could not run the ball and were terrible on defense. That time has passed. I actually believe they are the more well rounded team. Will that be enough to topple Aaron Rodgers and Pack’s historically great passing attack? I’ll say yes for the heck of it.

I’ve yet to pick a playoff game wrong (7-9 last week; 128-119-7 on the season)…

Texans (-3) over Bengals: Houston defends and runs the ball better than Cincy does anything. I won’t give the Bengals rookie quarterback a big enough advantage to go with them.

Saints (-10 1/2) over Lions: New Orleans has won its last eight and by an average of 17 points. Plus, Detroit got torn up by Matt Flynn last week. I’ll roll with Drew Brees and company.

Steelers (-8 1/2) over Broncos: I don’t have complete faith in Pittsburgh’s offense considering the health of Ben Roethlisberger. But I have 100% faith in their defense going against Tim Tebow and the Denver offense. You can’t give a consistently dominant defense that allowed only 14 points per game just one dimension to focus on. The Steelers defense is going to treat Tebow and the Broncos offense like a killer whale does a baby seal or like the Incredible Hulk does purple pants.

Giants (+3) over Falcons: If I could pass on any game, it’d be this one. I’m not sure about the G-Men. Are they getting healthy and everything is clicking for them at the right time? Or did they simply beat a Jets team in disarray and a Cowboys team that lost four of five (with the lone win coming against the Bucs)? Are they still the team that lost to the Redskins three weeks ago? If they beat Atlanta (who I’m not really sold on either but are certainly solid), they can count me as a believer.

It would take an epic failure in order for me not to finish with a winning record (8-8 last week; 121-110-7 on the season)…

Bills (+10.5) over Patriots: Something tells me N.E. goes into cruise control.

Saints (-8) over Panthers: I’d pick Cam and company on a neutral field given the points but New Orleans has been a monster at home.

Vikings (-1.5) over Bears: Joe Webb > Caleb Hannie?

Packers (+3) over Lions: Meaningless or not, it’s rare when the pack get points.

Colts (+3.5) over Jaguars: Indy is rolling now.

Dolphins (-3) over Jets: Not sure they aren’t just better. (Reggie Bush’s injury changes things but I’ll stick with the choice for the heck of it.)

49ers (-10.5) over Rams: Know they are better.

Titans (-3) over Texans: Playing for their playoff lives.

Bengals (+2.5): Same deal but in their own building.

Eagles (-8.5) over Redskins: Just because.

Broncos (-3) over Chiefs: Only because it’s in Mile High.

Steelers (-6.5) over Browns: I can’t remember if I’ve ever picked Cleveland.

Chargers (+3) over Raiders: San Diego spoils their playoff hopes.

Seahawks (+2.5) over Cardinals: No reason.

Falcons (-11) over Bucs: Tampa es no bueno.

Giants (-3) over Cowboys: I trust New York more, just slightly though.

This sports weekend is spectacular. Happy holidays everybody! (10-6 last week; 113-102-7 on the season)…

Colts (+7.5) over Texans: I deserve to lose this one. (I didn’t.)

Cardinals (+4.5) over Bengals: I think Arizona is just as good as Cincy at this point.

Ravens (-12.5) over Browns: Bounce back game for Baltimore.

Broncos (-3) over Bills: Buffalo is terrible and can’t stop the run.

Titans (-7) over Jaguars: Simply because they are at home.

Dolphins (+9.5) over Patriots: Miami deserves some respect for how they’ve been playing and the Pats have wrapped up the division.

Redskins (-6.5) over Vikings: In Grossman I trust.

Jets (-3) over Giants: The Giants are 7-7, have been outscored on the season and rank 28th in points allowed. Eli Manning is better than Mark Sanchez, everywhere else I think the Jets have a slight edge.

Chiefs (-2.5) over Raiders: Carson Palmer will throw some picks at Arrowhead.

Steelers (-11.5) over Rams: I don’t care who the quarterback is.

Panthers (-7.5) over Bucs: Tampa sucks.

Chargers (+2.5) over Lions: San Diego has their December super powers working again.

Eagles (+1.5) over Cowboys: If Philly has something to play for, they’ll dust Dallas.

Seahawks (+2.5) over 49ers: Seattle has been playing well, is at home and San Fran played Monday night.

Packers (-12) over Bears: Caleb Hannie.

Saints (-7) over Falcons: New Orleans seems unbeatable in the Superdome.

I just left the newly renovated Madison Square Garden following the Knicks and Nets second preseason meeting, my first taste of live basketball this season (yeah, I know it doesn’t really count). Despite the ugly nature of that particular game, I’m currently experiencing a state of antsy euphoria knowing the actual season is only a few days away and will gladly ignore a little post lockout sloppy play.

I feel like a kid fresh off a month-long grounding. There are simply too many stories to delve into come Christmas day. I’ll start with the two teams I just saw.

–Tyson Chandler is clearly going to have a significant impact on the Knicks. He is big, coordinated, active and athletic. He should improve their defense, keep attention away from Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire offensively and clean up the boards to limit teams to one shot (a huge problem for New York last year). His positive attitude also seems to be contagious.

With that said, their backcourt is currently a travesty. They’ve got absolutely no one who can break down a defense off the dribble. It’s probably not a good thing when Toney Douglas is the best guard on your team. Maybe Chandler’s positive energy can help heal Baron Davis’ back.

Another story to watch is the dynamic between Anthony and Mike D’Antoni. D’Antoni, considered an offensive guru, is coaching for his job. Meanwhile, Carmelo is attempting to justify his star status. Melo is a savant as a scorer but he’s never really made his teammates dramatically better like other top players (he’s been eliminated in the first round in seven of his eight playoff appearances–in an average of 4.7 games). D’Antoni promises to run the offense through him. Can they help each other get better? Will this be the year Carmelo becomes a true superstar?

–The Nets are currently Deron Williams and a bunch of scrubs. Brook Lopez is far and away their second best player and their third best player isn’t even known for basketball (the Garden crowd booed Kris Humphries vociferously, as if they were defending Kim Kardashian’s honor). *Brook Lopez’ injury was revealed after I wrote this and could make number two below the more likely outcome.*

No team has more at stake this year. It really is all or nothing for the Nets. Think about the two possible outcomes for them.

1. They acquire Dwight Howard. Then they would be heading to Brooklyn with two stars, an intriguing Russian billionaire owner, a mega star minority owner and a team capable of competing for years to come. They would actually matter and a fun rivalry would develop with the Knicks for the first time in New York basketball history.

2. They don’t acquire Dwight Howard. They continue to stink. They lose Deron Williams and move to Brooklyn with nothing. They remain irrelevant.

–Speaking of intra-city rivalries…how about the Clippers and Lakers seeming like legit competitors for the first time ever? The Lakers still have Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum making them ever dangerous. But Kobe is older (and hurt) and the team overall is slow. Plus, Josh McRoberts is their fourth best player. Meanwhile, the Clips now feature Chris Paul lobs to Blake Griffin, otherwise known as basketball pornography. Toss in the soap opera that was David Stern determining CP3’s trade destination and you have compelling theater. Jack Nicholson should just stay in his seat at all times.

–Then there’s that team in Miami. Will their chemistry continue to grow with experience or will they ultimately prove that simply assembling talent doesn’t guarantee results, even if you have the two best players in the world on the same team? (Or does it just prove that three great players need more than complete bums for a supporting cast?)

I’ll bet on them. And yes, I’ll still bet on LeBron James (even in the Finals). Give me Heat over Thunder in June.

I could care less about my record last week. I was up six points in fantasy going into the Sunday night game with DeMarco Murray going up against Victor Cruz. Murray’s ankle injury cost me my season. Thanks a lot DeMarco. Also, I wish you a speedy recovery and great success in the future, I don’t hold grudges (7-9 last week; 103-96-7 on the season)…

Falcons (-11 1/2) over Jaguars: I picked this. Trust me.

Bucs (+7) over Cowboys: Dallas hasn’t been impressive in weeks.

Redskins (+6 1/2) over Giants: Washington is actually playing well. G-Men by a field goal.

Eagles (-3) over Jets: With absolutely zero confidence. Jets offense shouldn’t be able to keep up with Philly but their physicality should be way too much for the Iggles to handle. I’ll just ride Philadelphia until they are mathematically eliminated.

Packers (-13 1/2) over Chiefs: Um, Kansas City was not impressive last week.

Saints (-6 1/2) over Vikings: New Orleans is better than Minnesota.

Seahawks (+3 1/2) over Bears: Seattle is better as currently constituted.

Dolphins (- 1 1/2) over Bills: The wheels have fallen off Buffalo’s wagon.

Texans (-6 1/2) over Panthers: That defense has been ballin’.

Titans (-6 1/2) over Colts: Indy hasn’t balled all year.

Bengals (-6 1/2) over Rams: One team is playing for its playoff life, the other sucks.

Raiders (+1) over Lions: At home.

Patriots (-6 1/2) over Broncos: Denver’s D and toughness on offense should actually make this close but I’m taking Belichick and Brady over the force of Tebow.

Cardinals (-7) over Browns: Arizona is kind of ok.

Chargers (+2 1/2) over Ravens: Say what you want about Norv Turner, he seems to have magical coaching powers in December.

49ers (-2 1/2) over Steelers: I’ll take that San Fran defense in their own building.

I’m still too consumed by all the NBA stuff to properly formulate thoughts on NFL picks. Chris Paul’s tweet said it all…in one word…WoW. Say what you want about David Stern, he’s not boring.

Here are the picks, devoid of any explanation whatsoever (9-7 last week; 96-87-7 on the season)…

Steelers (-14) over Browns (I lost this one)

Panthers (+3) over Falcons

Bengals (-3) over Texans

Ravens (-16.5) over Colts

Chiefs (+11) over Jets

Vikings (+10) over Lions

Patriots (-8.5) over Redskins

Titans (+4) over Saints

Eagles (+3) over Dolphins

Jaguars (+2) over Bucs

Broncos (-3.5) over Bears

49ers (-4) over Cardinals

Chargers (-7) over Bills

Raiders (+11.5) over Packers

Giants (+3.5) over Cowboys

Seahawks (-7.5) over Rams

*Update: The NBA killed the CP3 deal. Vince McMahon would be proud of them for this soap opera. Most of what I wrote below is no longer valid (it wasn’t any good anyway) as Chris Paul is the only player still in a lockout.*

The lockout is over and it’s like it never happened. There were so many gigantic moves in the NBA today that I can’t even process them yet.

Leave it to the Lakers to acquire a superstar that Kobe Bryant won’t even have to pass the ball to. Did they just form the best backcourt in history teaming him up with Chris Paul? Will trading away all their size but Andrew Bynum leave them with a huge weakness? Could they possibly still get Dwight Howard?

How about the Knicks who lost out on CP3? Tyson Chandler was exactly what they needed in the middle, defense and rebounding. But will they have to put a help wanted sign outside the Garden in order to fill their glaring hole at point guard?

Plus, the Heat signed a solid role player in Shane Battier and are giving Eddy Curry a shot. It’s too much. I don’t know what to make of it all. Ahhhhhhhh!!!!

Chris Paul wants to be a Knick. At least according to I’ve everything I’ve seen, read and common sense. And if that’s what he truly wants, he can make it happen. I’m here to make the case that it should happen before the start of the season.

Look, the Knicks don’t have much to offer New Orleans. Pretending they can put together an even deal is laughable. New York shouldn’t pretend otherwise. However, they do have one thing they can offer the Hornets; the chance to be terrible. Right now. Not in a year. Not later in the season. Immediately. From the opening tip.

Now you might ask, why would the Hornets want to be terrible? Because being terrible is preferable to being mediocre. The worst thing an NBA team can be is mediocre. No chance at a championship, no chance at high draft picks. Other teams with more valuable trade pieces than the Knicks are offering the Hornets the chance to be just that.

Think about some of the possibilities. There’s no way the Hornets will get a player in return that can replace a true superstar, in my opinion the best point guard in the league. They can only hope not to be embarrassed by what they get in return. Take the rumored Rajon Rondo deal. Rondo is an excellent player but his talents have been maximized playing alongside three future Hall of Famers. Put him on New Orleans and you have a really good player with a bunch of average ones, equalling…you guessed it, mediocre. Or how about the other rumored suitor, the Clippers? They could offer a package built around say Eric Gordon, a very good young player. He and some filler might make N.O. slightly above awful. Not exactly a recipe for success. (Remember, any draft picks they’d get from these teams would wind up being late, especially after those teams added CP3.)

By trading Chris Paul to the Knicks, the Hornets give him exactly what he wants without getting much in return. Doesn’t exactly seem fair. But they can’t get a fair deal. Their course of action should be to rebuild and the best way to rebuild is to bottom out and get a bunch of ping pong balls in the next draft (one that happens to be deep because kids stayed in school to avoid the lockout).

Drafting a stud is the only way they can approximate CP3 and they’d only have to suffer one year to do so. Then, their fans would have something to look forward to watching develop, with the draft pick, a couple of young complementary pieces acquired in the deal and a roster devoid of bad contracts (which the Knicks would take on).

By making this trade, by swallowing pride and agreeing to be terrible right away, their front office would have a shot at a do-over, a chance to succeed where they failed with Paul.

Got some breathing room last week (10-5-1 last week; 87-80-7 on the season)…

Eagles (-3) over Seahawks: Don’t know why I’m picking the Iggles again.

Falcons (-3) over Texans: I didn’t know who TJ Yates was until last week.

Titans (+3) over Bills: Better team getting points?

Bears (-7) over Chiefs: Tyler Palko=Caleb Hanie, Rest of Bears > Rest of Chiefs.

Dolphins (-3) over Raiders: Miami’s corners will pick Carson Palmer once or twice.

Steelers (-7) over Bengals: With no confidence.

Jets (-3) over Redskins: Don’t have much confidence in Jets either.

Panthers (+3) over Bucs: I guess.

Broncos (+1) over Vikings: Vikes can stop the run but I’m not will in to bet against the end of Tim Tebow’s run yet.

Ravens (-7) over Browns: Watch Baltimore not show up.

Rams (+14) over 49ers: Too many?

Cardinals (+4 1/2) over Cowboys: Dallas has been playing squeakers.

Packers (-7) over Giants: Can’t go the other way after seeing what the Saints did to Big Blue’s D on Monday.

Saints (-7) over Lions: I’m ready to stomp on Detroit’s season.

Jaguars (+3) over Chargers: Whoever is coaching Jacksonville has got to be better than Norv Turner.

Patriots (-21) over Colts: Yep.

It’s over. I can’t believe it’s finally over. The NBA lockout has ended (tentatively) and my life has gotten somewhere between 49 and 51% better.

In the aftermath I’m sure some will analyze who won the deal. Others may wonder whether there will be any lingering negative effects or anger amongst the fanbase. Me? I say who cares. Basketball is back and that’s all that matters. I can immediately forget about all the other nonsense.

No more talk of BRI’s or system issues or escrow or luxury taxes or disclaiming unions and anti-trust suits. And to make it even better, with the NFL lockout in the rearview and MLB’s labor situation quietly resolved, we won’t have to deal with the word lockout and the surrounding babble that goes with it for the better part of a decade.

Now we can turn our attention to less boring and frustrating things. Like say…the Miami Heat act two, the last stand for Kobe’s Lakers and the Boston Celtics, the first promising Knicks season in years, the continued emergence of young stars like Kevin Durant and Derrick Rose, endless rumors surrounding Dwight Howard, Deron Williams and Chris Paul and whether his short time with Kim Kardashian will vault Kris Humphries to superstar status.

Because, as it turns out, Nuclear winters are no match for Christmas miracles.

(And since many on the internet seem impervious to sarcasm, I was kidding about the Kris Humphries one.)

Happy Thanksgiving everybody! (6-7-1 last week; 77-75-6 on the season)…

Packers (-7) over Lions: Green Bay has been a fairly safe pick thus far this year.

Dolphins (+7) over Dallas: Miami has outscored opponents 86-20 in the last three weeks.

Ravens (-3) over 49ers: San Francisco is really good but if there is a game for Alex Smith to have a retro performance, it’ll be on the road in Baltimore.

Jets (-8) over Bills: Buffalo stinks and Rex Ryan’s defense owns Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Cardinals (+3) over Rams: Arizona is better. Maybe.

Panthers (-3.5) over Colts: Keeping with the don’t pick the Colts no matter what rule.

Browns (+8.5) over Bengals: Cincy likely wins but I’m not sure they crush them.

Texans (-3.5) over Jaguars: A Matt Leinart led Houston offense is still vastly superior to Jacksonville’s.

Falcons (-9.5) over Vikings: Atlanta is great at home and the Vikings are no good. They should be even more no good without Adrian Peterson.

Titans (-3.5) over Bucs: No reason.

Bears (+4.5) over Raiders: Jay Cutler was playing very well but the Chicago defense, running game and special teams are still good enough for them not to fall apart.

Seahawks (-4) over Redskins: I will not be watching this game.

Broncos (+6.5) over Chargers: Can’t give Tebow that many points, can you?

Steelers (-10.5) over Chiefs: Tyler Palko, meet the Steelers defense.

Eagles (+3) over Patriots: Philly is going to make the rest of this season interesting.

Saints (-7) over Giants: Bad matchup for G-Men.

Doh ! (6-9 last week; 71-68-5 on the season)…

Jets (-7) over Broncos: Actually not that confident in this pick but Jets need this one.

Dolphins (-1.5) over Bills: I know longer believe in Buffalo and Miami has looked upper tier mediocre recently.

Panthers (+7) over Lions: Don’t know why.

Ravens (-7) over Bengals: Baltimore is hard to predict but they seem to play well against good teams.

Cowboys (-8) over Redskins: Washington might currently be the worst team in the league.

Jaguars (Even) over Browns: I think I believe Jacksonville is slightly better.

Raiders (-1) over Vikings: Um, Minnesota is not very good.

Packers (-14) over Bucs: Um, the Packers are.

Cardinals (+10) over 49ers: Seems like too many points.

Rams (-1) over Seahawks: In a battle of two bad teams, I’ll take the one at home.

Bears (-4) over Chargers: Chicago is for real.

Falcons (-6) over Titans: Atlanta is so much better at home than on the road.

Eagles (+4.5) over Giants: Last chance Philly.

Patriots (-15) over Chiefs: I believe the first team in this matchup says Patriots and the second one says Chiefs.

Sometimes when you back someone into a corner, they fight back. That’s the situation we have now in the NBA.

The players feel like their backs are against the wall and the only prudent thing to do is stand up to their perceived assailant; Commissioner David Stern and a group of hardline owners. I vehemently disagree with this tactic but I totally understand it.

By issuing a take it or leave it ultimatum, the league played off of all the wrong aspects of its players (some of the more competitive people on the planet). I suspect this negotiating strategy was meant to break the union and pressure them into taking a deal they deemed unfavorable. Instead, it played to their emotions and caused them to stand up for what they believe in, even if the battle they are waging is a futile one.

Stern appears confident he will prevail and he probably will, in the literal sense of this particular situation. (As a side note, he has a lot of nerve insinuating the players failed to negotiate in good faith when they made economic concessions worth well north of $3 billion.) Where he will not win is in representing his product, the National Basketball Association. It was his job to get the more hawkish owners (the ones who clearly hate the Miami Heat, New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers) to back off. It was his job to massage a situation that was more than two years in the making. It was his job to harness the momentum his league had, not potentially destroy it. It was his job to get a deal done. It was his job to save the season. It looks like he has failed.

This is no longer a battle over money. For the owners, this is about control. For the players, it is about pride. The owners are correct but they aren’t right. The players aren’t correct but they are right. And neither side is relying on logic nor acting rationally in an effort to win this fight. So in the end, we all lose.

I just wish I could make like the players and disclaim my interest.

I know Penn State is the biggest story right now but I’ve talked enough about it on the radio and there’s nothing I can write that I haven’t or hasn’t been said. I’ll sum it up in one word, terrible. And then there’s my unending frustration with the NBA lockout.
At least there’s picks to make (8-6 last week; 65-59-5)…

Raiders (+7.5) over Chargers: I don’t think San Diego is good enough to get this many points against anyone.

Bills (+5.5) over Cowboys: Don’t trust Dallas.

Eagles (7.5) over Cardinals: I’ve been wrong on Philly all year. I’ll give them one more chance.

Chiefs (-3) over Broncos: I’ll take Kansas City at home.

Texans (-3.5) over Bucs: I’ve got a gut feeling Tampa takes this but logic and numbers say Houston.

Jaguars (-3) over Colts: I vowed never to pick Indy again.

Saints (-1) over Falcons: With no confidence whatsoever.

Steelers (-3.5) over Bengals: Not a Bengals believer yet.

Rams (+3) over Browns: Why not?

Panthers (-3.5) over Titans: Tennessee is very vulnerable through the air.

Dolphins (-4) over Redskins: Miami is favored. That tells you how good Washington is.

Ravens (-7) over Seahawks: Can’t think of a reason to go the other way.

Bears (-3) over Lions: I’ve been impressed with Chicago over the last several weeks.

49ers (-3.5) over Giants: Tough game for G-Men having to go across the country after a huge win to face the best defense in the league.

Jets (-1.5) over Patriots: Jets simply might be the better team.

Vikings (+13.5) over Packers: I’ll say rivalry keeps them within two touchdowns.

Looking to put .500 further in my rearview mirror (5-6-1 last week; 57-53-5)…

Bills (-2) over Jets: Huge game. The Bills are third in points per game, near the top in rushing and first in takeaways. Though the Jets pass coverage may be enough to carry the day.

Patriots (-9) over Giants: I originally took the Giants because that is too many points to give the NFC East leaders but the Giants simply have too many injuries.

Falcons (-7) over Colts: I’m never picking Indy again.

Saints (-8) over Bucs: Bounceback game?

Browns (+11) over Texans: Too many.

Dolphins (+4) over Chiefs: Miami may have lost every game but they’ve been in a bunch of them.

49ers (-3 1/2) over Redskins: I think Washington officially stinks now.

Seahawks (+11 1/2) over Cowboys: Dallas isn’t good enough to be favored by double digits.

Raiders (-8) over Broncos: Denver hasn’t looked so good.

Bengals (+3) over Titans: I don’t know who is better.

Cardinals (-2 1/2) over Rams: Home team?

Packers (-5 1/2) over Chargers: Better team.

Steelers (-3) over Ravens: Revenge.

Eagles (-7 1/2) over Bears: I’m back on the Eagles bandwagon.

I’d like to put some distance between me and .500 (7-5-1 last week; 52-47-4 on the season)…

Ravens (-13) over Cardinals: Baltimore won’t replicate last week.

Colts (+8.5) over Titans: Too many points. Titans aren’t good.

Jaguars (+10) over Texans: Jags defense is actually playing really well.

Dolphins (+10) over Giants: Giants win, not quite sure it is by more than ten.

Panthers (-3.5) over Vikings: I believe in Killa Cam.

Saints (-14) over Rams: The Rams are the worst team in the league.

Broncos (+3) over Lions: TEBOW!!! I don’t even believe that but I wanted to type it.

Bills (-7) over Redskins: Washington will finish last in the NFC East.

Bengals (-3) over Seahawks: Much lesser of two evils.

Browns (+10) over 49ers: San Francisco is strong on defense, not sure they can run up the score on people.

Patriots (-3) over Steelers: Tom Brady owns Pittsburgh.

Eagles (-3.5) over Cowboys: Philly is playing for its season.

Chiefs (+4) over Chargers: San Diego is overrated.

Last year, the beginning of the NBA season was met with heightened fervor. This was due to the fallout of “The Decision” and the debut of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami. Despite the success of last year’s finals, that anticipation would have been difficult to replicate this year.

Unless, fans thought they weren’t going to get a season at all. We always want what we can’t have. When you were grounded as a child, going outside and playing with your friends felt like the most exciting prospect imaginable. (I suppose that’s the most innocent analogy for being locked out.)

I was as angry as anyone in regards to the NBA’s work stoppage. But with optimism in the air and prospects of a full 82-game season, my anger is morphing into nervousness and measured excitement. And I’m now firmly convinced missing the entire year was a bluff from both sides.

Look, I’m not implying this was orchestrated, that would be ridiculous. But I am saying, what better way to amp up the hype for the Miami Heat act 2, the first full season of Stat and Melo in New York, trade rumors around Dwight Howard and the Mavs attempt to defend their crown, then to have people believe it was not going to happen at all.

I won’t be fully at ease until a deal is reached but I believe again. And to quote Kevin Garnett, ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!!

I seem to fluctuate week to week. So this must be my week (5-7-1 last week; 45-42-3 on the season)…

Chargers (-2) over Jets: Maybe if Rex Ryan were coaching the Chargers the spread would be larger.

Bears (-1) over Bucs: I was moderately impressed by Chicago Sunday night.

Panthers (-2 1/2) over Redskins: Cam Newton > John Beck

Browns (-3) over Seahawks: I hope I witness absolutely none of this game.

Titans (-3) over Texans: I hate the Texans, I’m not sure why, but I do.

Broncos (+2) over Dolphins: Tim Tebow > Matt Moore. I’m not sure what that says about Tebow but I am sure about that comparison.

Falcons (+3 1/2) over Lions: I see Detroit around 10-6, they’ve got to start losing at some point.

Raiders (-4 1/2) over Chiefs: I don’t care who their quarterback is.

Steelers (-3 1/2) over Cardinals: Look at the two teams I just typed.

Cowboys (-13) over Rams: I might pick the St. Louis Cardinals before the Rams.

Packers (-9) over Vikings: Bad pun alert…I didn’t have to Ponder this one.

Saints (-14) over Colts: I actually don’t believe this but Indy has burned me all season.

Ravens (-8) over Jaguars: Baltimore is one of the best teams in the league, Jacksonville one of the worst. Makes sense.

Rex Ryan is great for my profession. I can’t ever remember a coach providing more talk fodder. He’s been the gift that keeps on giving. Perhaps the best press conference performer of all time.

And while I’ve wondered whether he was approaching the clown line at times, I’ve always defended him. The results were there. Yes, he guaranteed Super Bowls and didn’t win them but he has coached the Jets for two years and they’ve appeared in two AFC Championship games. He may not have delivered on his ‘promises’ but he delivered the goods. I believe there is an old saying about only talking if you can back it up. To me, that’s backing it up, particularly when you bounce Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the 14-2 Patriots in the process.

However, the Jets success never stopped the ubiquitous question, ‘Does Rex Ryan talk too much?’ While most in the media appeared to be his sycophants, guffawing at his jokes on cue, there were others who were outraged, or at least feigned outrage. And they’ve been waiting for their chance to pounce. A chance they hope is nearing.

We love to build people up and tear them down (see the “South Park” Britney Spears episode) and I’ve always maintained that when Rex fell, he would fall hard. (Insert the bigger they are, the harder they fall joke.) He hasn’t fallen yet but the way his team is playing, coupled with locker room turmoil and his comments regarding Norv Turner and the Chargers, he may be on the ledge. Though, he now has more guaranteed and theoretical rings than any coach in history. So there’s that.

If this is indeed the end of the honeymoon, there’s one image I’ll look back on; Rex calling a timeout to argue the results of a play he already challenged as his team was getting embarrassed by the Ravens. He looked like a man who had lost control.

Now, maybe this will be nothing and he and the Jets will live up to their Super Bowl expectations. But I wouldn’t guarantee it.

Can’t complain (7-5-1 last week; 40-35-2 on the season)…

Buffalo (+3 1/2) over New York Giants: The Bills have scored more points per game than any team but the Packers and Patriots and the lead the league in takeaways. The Giants don’t do anything that good.

Green Bay (-15) over St. Louis: Can’t pick the Rams.

Pittsburgh (-12) over Jacksonville: Seems like a lot but see above and replace Rams with Jaguars.

Philadelphia (-1 1/2) over Washington: Last chance Philly.

Detroit (-4 1/2) over San Francisco: Lions are probably better and at home.

Carolina (+4) over Atlanta: Could see an upset here.

Bengals (-7) over Indianapolis: Every time I pick Indy, I lose.

Baltimore (-7 1/2) over Houston: Ravens are better, they’re significantly better with the Texans sans Andre Johnson.

Oakland (-6 1/2) over Cleveland: I don’t buy the Browns.

New England (-7) over Dallas: Picking Pats pays off most of the time.

Tampa (+4 1/2) over New Orleans: Gut.

Minnesota (+3) over Chicago: Vikings are better than their record.

Miami (+7) over New York Jets: The Jets should win but the Dolphins are a winless team off a bye, expect a good effort.

Anytime there is a failure as epic as missing games a year after one of the most successful seasons in league history, there is a lot of blame to go around. Everyone is somewhat at fault. But if I had to point my index finger directly at one person, it’d be NBA Commissioner David Stern.

It is David Stern’s job to represent the league and the owners. However, it is also his job to present the union with a proposal that they can realistically sell to the players. He did not. It’s a major problem that union heads Billy Hunter and Derek Fisher said they expected to reach this point and thought it was part of the NBA’s strategy. True or not, it’s an even bigger problem that Stern did nothing to change that mindset.

The league’s offer indicates they want to have their cake, eat it too and then have it again. According to reports, the sides would have reached a deal on money, with the players giving back a significant chunk. On top of that, the owners want to overhaul the entire system in their favor.

To me, it’s obvious some of this is in response to the Miami Heat and Carmelo Anthony. Some owners feel the players have too much control (I’d suspect Dan Gilbert and Stan Kroenke are amongst them). I bet they watched LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh celebrate their signing together and Carmelo force his way to New York while toasting to a future union with Chris Paul and thought, have your fun now, we’ll see you during CBA negotiations. And their demand of a pseudo hard cap is a way to seek retribution and put control back in their hands, even if they’ve shown an inability to competently wield it in the past.

The NBA hasn’t lost the casual fan yet, that won’t happen unless they miss a season and that fan forgets the league exists. Instead, they’ve spit in the face of their real fans and harmed the livelihood of their lower tier workers. And for what?

Minnesota (+3) over Arizona: I don’t know why I’m picking the Vikings but I am.

Jacksonville (-2) over Cincinnati: There must be a reason the Jags are favored.

Indianapolis (-2.5) over Kansas City: Colts are a bit better with Curtis Painter.

Carolina (+7) over New Orleans: Gut pick so it’s wrong.

Oakland (+6) over Houston: No Andre Johnson.

Philadelphia (-3) over Buffalo: Eagles gotta win this one, right?

Seattle (+10) over New York Giants: Ten points seems just about perfect.

Pittsburgh (-3) over Tennessee: I need one more week of proof from the Titans.

Tampa (+3) over San Francisco: I suppose.

New England (+9) over New York Jets: Gotta see the Jets look better after their recent performances.

San Diego (-4.5) over Denver: Chargers are better?

Green Bay (-6.5) over Atlanta: Packers are certainly better.

Chicago (+5) over Detroit: Feels like that trap division game for Lions.

It’s not fair that the owners are asking so much of a giveback from their most important employees. That doesn’t mean it’s not inevitable. What is the players’ leverage? Missing a season? I’m not sure how that benefits anyone (and I would probably cry if it happened).

This is a star-driven league and I believe if this lockout is prolonged, it will be star-driven as well. You see, guys like Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Kevin Garnett feel they’re worth a ton to the league. And they are. They also feel like they can financially withstand missed time. With their income, I’m sure they can. Plus, they’re competitive. They probably want to win this thing on principle.

However, that’s not the best thing for the majority of the players. The role players, the journeymen, the rookies. An average NBA career is around five years. Why would the typical player want to sacrifice the equivalent of 20% of his total earnings in order to fight until the end over the percentage points that would result in an annual pay cut.

The players had been winning the P.R. battle. They’ve managed to perpetuate the stereotype of the greedy owner. But they won’t win the war. If games are missed, fans will lash out at the players, because that’s who they know. The owners are just names to them. The players are the league, good or bad. And if there’s a significant stoppage, fans will lash out at them like they do the guy who makes a huge on court gaffe in a pivotal moment.

The players have already sacrificed hundreds of millions of dollars. They’ll have to sacrifice a little more. And the owners need to relax and throw them a bone. A 51-49 split should be a realistic deal. Owners win (players previously received 57%) but players get to win the last little inch of negotiating and keep their share over 50 percent.

I just hope both sides realize this in time.

Cincinnati (+3.5) over Buffalo: Marvin Lewis basically guaranteed a win. And if you can’t trust Marvin Lewis…

Chicago (-7) over Carolina: The Bears are a tough team to figure out but their most impressive performance of the season came at home and they are back in Chicago this week.

Detroit (Even) over Dallas: With no confidence whatsoever.

Minnesota (-2.5) over Kansas City: I think the Vikings are a better 0-3 than the Chiefs are.

New Orleans (-7) over Jacksonville: The Jaguars are not good at football.

Pittsburgh (+4) over Houston: The Steelers have not been impressive but I hate on the Texans.

Philadelphia (-5.5) over San Francisco: If the Eagles don’t win this one the dream might be dead.

Cleveland (Even) over Tennessee: The Browns are at home and the Titans just lost Kenny Britt. That’s the extent of my reasoning.

St. Louis (+1) over Washington: Gut.

Seattle (+5.5) over Atlanta: The Falcons haven’t done enough to be favored by that many on the road against anybody.

New York Giants (-1.5) over Arizona: Giants D-Line>Kevin Kolb

Denver (+13.5) over Green Bay: Suckered by the points.

Miami (+7) over San Diego: Suckered by fewer points.

New England (-5) over Oakland: The Patriots won’t lose two in a row, right?

New York Jets (+3.5) over Baltimore: A field goal sounds about right.

Indianapolis (+10) over Tampa: The Colts stink but they seem to stink just a little less each week.

Denver (+7) over Tennessee: Seems like too many points.

Minnesota (+4) over Detroit: Home dogs.

New Orleans (-4.5) over Houston: The Texans have the number one ranked defense in the league. That changes this week.

Carolina (-4) over Jacksonville: Killa Cam gets his first W.

Miami (+2.5) over Cleveland: Whatever.

New England (-9) over Buffalo: Going with the Patriots seems to work pretty well.

Philadelphia (-6.5) over New York Giants: Same theory as with Pats and though it seemed the G-Men did a nice job against Michael Vick last season, the Eagles still put up 38 and 27 points against them in two meetings.

San Francisco (+3) over Cincinnati: I hypothesize that the 49ers are better than the Bengals.

Baltimore (-4.5) over St. Louis: I know the Ravens are better than the Rams.

Kansas City (+15.5) over San Diego: Probably a sucker bet.

Oakland (+3.5) over New York Jets: Don’t have enough faith in the Jets offense.

Arizona (-3.5) over Seattle: The Seahawks are not good at scoring points.

Atlanta (+1.5) over Tampa: Flip a coin.

Green Bay (-4) over Chicago: Aaron Rodgers > Jay Cutler.

Pittsburgh (-11.5) over Indianapolis: I went with the Colts two weeks in a row. No more.

Washington (+6.5) over Dallas: Are the Cowboys definitely better than the Redskins?

Washington (-4) over Arizona: The Skins are at home, have a good defense and an improved offense. The Cardinals do not have a good defense.

Baltimore (-7) over Tennessee: The Ravens just crushed the Steelers. The Titans are inferior to the Steelers.

Chicago (+7) over New Orleans: The Bears have to be the most disrespected team in the league. They won 11 games and went to the NFC Championship game last year. Last week they pulverized the Falcons. Yet, they are seven point dogs to a team that may or may not have recorded a single tackle in its opener.

Indianapolis (+2) over Cleveland: Yes, the Colts got crushed. But the Browns lost to the Bengals at home. As long as Kerry Collins doesn’t repeatedly fumble in his own territory, Indy’s got this.

Green Bay (-10.5) over Carolina: A lot of points. Still, I’m really gonna pick the Panthers (apologies to Killa Cam)?

Jacksonville (+9.5) over New York Jets: The Jets will win but they hardly ever win big.

Detroit (-8) over Kansas City: With no confidence whatsoever.

Oakland (+4) over Buffalo: Not sure why.

Pittsburgh (-15) over Seattle: It’s like I’m being dared to take the Seahawks. I’ll call.

Minnesota (-3) over Tampa: Hopefully Donovan McNabb throws for more than 39 yards.

San Francisco (+3.5) over Dallas: Probably wrong.

Denver (-4.5) over Cincinnati: I believe I think that the Broncos are slightly better.

Miami (+3) over Houston: The Dolphins looked solid against New England for three quarters.

New England (-7) over San Diego: Then the Patriots did what they do.

Philadelphia (-3) over Atlanta: Don’t think Vick is losing in his return to hotlanta.

New York Giants (-4.5) over St. Louis: They kinda have to win.

Anytime the spinal cord is involved and the words “nerve regeneration” are being thrown around, I worry about not just missed seasons but shortened careers and even post-career problems. Let’s hope Peyton’s prognosis is on the optimistic side and he can return 100%, because while I’ve always been on the Tom Brady side of the Manning-Brady debate, the NFL is a better league with Peyton in it. Maybe the Colts will make him Audible Coordinator or something in the meantime.

On to the week one picks…

Indy (+9) over Houston: Might as well start with this one. Every year people love the Texans. I’ve gotta see it to believe it. And teams tend to play better right after they lose a star with the impact catching up to them later. That’s my reasoning.

Green Bay (-4.5) over New Orleans: I’m pretty sure I saw a stat that says the Super Bowl winner always wins the opening game or something.

Chicago (-3) over Atlanta: I don’t love da Bears this year but I’ll take them in Chi-town.

Buffalo (+6) over Kansas City: Matt Cassel is banged up and I don’t really expect the Chiefs to roll over anybody.

Cincinnati (+7) over Cleveland: Blah.

Tampa (-1) over Detroit: I’m looking forward to seeing if the Lions are finally good but like Houston, gotta see it first. Bucs probably shouldn’t be underdogs in their own building.

Philadelphia (-5.5) over St. Louis: This seems like the logical choice.

Pittsburgh (+2) over Ravens: The slightly better of two really goods.

Jacksonville (Even) over Tennessee: When I have no idea, I’ll go with the home team (even if they dumped their quarterback less than a week beforehand).

Arizona (-7) over Carolina: Look out for Larry Fitzgerald this year.

Minnesota (+8.5) over San Diego: Vikings should be slightly improved with McNabb. Too many points.

New York Giants (-3) over Washington: The Giants lost some players in the preseason. I don’t expect them to lose to the Redskins.

Seattle (+5) over San Francisco: I hate the NFC West.

New York Jets (-4) over Dallas: Jets are at home and better.

New England (-8) over Miami: Pats are just better.

Oakland (+3) over Denver: No reason.

It’s as if people were waiting for his stupidity to be realized. As if they were rooting for it. As if they assumed he was a dim bulb from the start. I wonder why.

I wonder if it’s because he was cast as the villain in the Ohio State mess. He, not Jim Tressel seemed to be the fall guy and may be bearing the brunt of Buckeyes fans ire. I believe the initial erroneous reports originated from the Midwest. Are they looking to see him punished for his alleged wrongdoing (which is totally up to individual interpretation)? I wonder if that’s the only reason.

I wonder if people simply don’t believe he will be good and are looking for evidence to support that. However, I can see saying his skill set will not translate the NFL. I don’t see where assuming he’s a dummy comes into play in this equation.

I wonder if race is a major factor. Some get outraged whenever race is brought up but I do believe there could still be a stigma with black quarterbacks. (The whole Rush Limbaugh-Donovan McNabb controversy was such a big deal for a reason.) Just today on the radio, a caller told us Pryor was like Michael Vick and Jamarcus Russell before him. I’m not sure how that makes any sense since Vick has proven to be successful in the league and since he and Russell are nothing alike. Russell was strong-armed, Vick is strong-armed but Vick also happens to be the most mobile quarterback of all time, Russell was fat and slow and never a scrambler. I also don’t think it can be a total coincidence that the last time a nearly impossibly low Wonderlic score was incorrectly leaked, it involved Vince Young. I wonder if we’ll ever see that happen with a guy like Matt Stafford or Colt McCoy.

I wonder if it says more about the sentiment with running quarterbacks than it does about unintentional racial bias. There seems to be a contingent out there that assumes failure with any QB who is not a traditional pocket passer. Most running quarterbacks are of a particular race but Tim Tebow is currently getting similar treatment. (I’m not saying I believe Tebow is good or not, just that he doesn’t seem to be getting a fair crack.) Yes, accuracy from the pocket is a proven winning formula in the NFL since the advent of the Bill Walsh era. However, Steve Young ran and he won and guys like Randall Cunningham have had great success in the league. Perhaps it’s still too early to judge the newest crop of running quarterbacks, perhaps teams have failed to utilize them effectively the way Andy Reid did Vick last year. (The combined winning percentage of the Eagles top two QB’s–Vick and Young–is over 60% by the way.) I wonder.

I wonder if I’ll continue this stupid I wonder play on words because this type of writing actually deserves a seven on the Wonderlic. It’s almost as if I’m a running quarterback.

However, soon after, Santonio declared that he and his family were excited he wound up in the paper. If he didn’t care how he was perceived, why should I? No harm was done by it. He did nothing wrong.

It’s an example that has caused me to chuckle at other similar and more recent instances. As a member of the media, I get excited when someone says or does something that provides a talking point. I’d imagine most of my brethren feel the same way. (Most of them would probably scoff at someone of my stature referring to them as my brethren first.) Yet, out the other side of the mouth, many condemn athletes for exactly that, call it a mistake and outline how they should’ve handled it. Oftentimes they are outraged while doing so.

Eli Manning said he belongs in the same class as Tom Brady and many clamored that he should’ve held his tongue or evaded the question. Why? So he can appear more boring than he already does? That was just about the most interesting thing he’s ever uttered. And if he believes it, more power to him.

Michael Vick opened up to “GQ”, including about how the general public seemed ignorant regarding the prevalence of the disturbing activity he is now notorious for, amongst other things. He could’ve told them anything about that topic or any other where he could possibly come off in a negative light were off limits. He didn’t and if you read the full article (where he reiterates his wrongdoing), he comes out looking like a fully developed person, not a PR robot.

The media frequently warns athletes against saying or doing the same things it is constantly trying to uncover. Then scolds them as soon as they do. Even if said athlete has done nothing wrong. Even if he’s simply speaking his mind.

Begging for guys to be interesting and proceeding to crush them as soon as they are? That seems just as dumb as anything any athlete has ever said.

The above paragraph could be about Randy Moss. It could also be about Allen Iverson. Both guys had parallel careers. People marveled at Iverson’s athletic prowess, they marveled in a similar fashion at Moss’. A.I. dominated the NBA, scoring like no little man ever had before him. Moss dominated the NFL, becoming the greatest downfield threat the league had ever seen.

However, both could be remembered just as much for their baggage as they are for their Hall of Fame careers. No one questioned Iverson’s heart but his attitude and playing style were often critiqued and his career ended almost sadly with him refusing to accept a reduced role, winding up playing overseas. Both Moss’ heart and attitude came under question and his career came to an end in a similar fashion, with an abrupt retirement following a year in which he seemed to go from team to team.

Still, I’ll remember both guys in a positive light, at least for the entertainment value they provided with their on-field and on-court exploits, not to mention their off-field and off-court sound bites. You could say they weren’t winning players but I don’t think that’d be fair. Iverson was the MVP on one of the worst teams to ever appear in the NBA Finals and Moss was on the two highest scoring offenses in NFL history, one of which came within a game of a perfect season.

Inarguably, they are two of the greatest natural athletes we’ve ever witnessed. Iverson, a scoring machine and a warrior on the court. Moss, one of the top-five players ever at his position and the greatest big-play threat of all time. Personally, I hope the way they went out won’t be the way they’re remembered.

Last year Philadelphia may have given Green Bay its toughest game en route to the Super Bowl and that was with the 21st ranked defense. A defense they happened to improve by adding Jason Babin (who had 12 1/2 sacks last year), Cullen Jenkins (to address their porous run defense), Dominique-Rodgers Cromartie (in exchange for their clipboard holder) and of course lockdown corner Nnamdi Asomugha. I’d say their defense will place somewhere higher than 21st this year.

Offensively they still possess as much big play ability as anyone and Vince Young will be good insurance for Michael Vick. I also wouldn’t bet against Andy Reid figuring out a way to use both of them together.

There’s no such thing as putting together a sure thing title team in a sport where injuries and one-game scenarios can change anything but I don’t think many people would bet against the Eagles winning fewer than 11 games.

Let’s not act like this is the Redskins loading up on big names, the Eagles have been one of the best run organizations in sports for going on a decade. Maybe they’ll finally get the trophy to recognize that work.

Imagine no fantasy football drafts this August. Imagine no games come Sunday in September. And then imagine that continues through Halloween and the NBA season doesn’t even start. I’m not sure what I’d do with myself. I hope I wouldn’t turn to crime (shout out to Ray Lewis).

The NFL lockout is now more than 100 days old. I never thought I’d care as long as games weren’t affected but it’s starting to irritate me that they haven’t gotten a deal done yet. After all, the NFL is a booming, profitable league (It’s kind of the biggest thing in our country). And they are trying to change things according to their prognostications, not the present. It feels so unnecessary.

The NBA has a more serious situation at hand. The league is not nearly as profitable as it should be. In fact, it is the opposite of profitable. The system needs to be fixed. However, it needs to be fixed without alienating fans. I think this would be a good idea considering they are coming off the highest rated season in the history of the sport.

Imagine if the lockouts don’t get fixed. Personally, I’d rather not use my imagination. And my logical side says these guys can’t be so stubborn as to mess with such good things. (Plus, I’m an optimist.)

Besides, lockout talk is incredibly boring.

Last night there were guys taken from the U.S., Turkey, the Czech Republic, the Congo and more. This has become a common theme of the Draft, along with people grading things that have yet to be determined, declaring busts and praising upside.

Still, it appears many have yet to come to grips with the large foreign imprint on the NBA. They refuse to believe that international players are valuable and instead praise guys who stood out in college. Somehow they forget Mateen Cleaves, Dee Brown and Khalid El-Amin.

Of course, any reasonable person could counter with Darko Milicic, amongst many others. The truth is, busts come from everywhere. Darko was an international bust, Kwame Brown a straight out of high school bust and Adam Morrison a college bust.

Another truth is that the best pro prospects are one and done college players (since guys can’t come out of HS anymore) and international players. This year’s All Star Game featured 17 players who didn’t go to college, went to college for one year or were from overseas. For the most part, college players who are good enough to be studs in the pros don’t stay in college very long. Longer tenured college players often become contributors but are rarely building blocks.

It’s actually fairly easy to argue that the level of play overseas is stronger than the level of play in the NCAA. If we sent our best college players to play in the international tournaments, they’d get massacred. In fact, we send our very best pro players and still had to install a system requiring them to spend multiple Summers playing together just so the likes of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant could beat Spain.

Call them soft if you want but the top level foreign guys can ball. As for Artest, I’d rather he change his name to Scooby Doo or something.

What’s sadder than picking Darko before future Hall of Famers? How about the fact that I’m watching the 2003 NBA Draft. But that’s what this time year will do to me. (I suppose I could flip over to the U.S. Open but I’m pretty sure that’s a golf event.) The moral of this story is, Summer is great, for everything but sports.

Some might argue I’m forgetting about baseball. I am not. Say whatever you’d like about its entertainment value; one thing you cannot say is that individual games are of tremendous consequence. In fact, baseball is as tied into the weather and season as any sport. Going to the ballpark on a nice day is appealing. Still, in most cases you’re going more for the experience than the event.

I’m not wishing away the Summer. I like beaches. But Fall is when everything starts again for the sports world.

(I’m assuming the lockouts will be ended/averted. The NBA is doing too well right now and NFL players can’t afford to miss games. Guys have bills. And Antonio Cromartie has child support payments to make. Remember, I can name the entire Wu-Tang Clan faster than he can recite his kids’ names.)

But that doesn’t mean there aren’t explanations. The Mavericks won the title more than the Heat lost it. Whatever “IT” is, which is impossible to quantify, Dallas had “IT” this year. They also were the only team in the league good enough to beat the Heat because they used Miami’s strengths against them.

They had a suffocating defense scrambling by using its over aggressiveness to their advantage. And they made them pay by hitting shots; lots of ‘em. Then on the defensive end, Rick Carlisle employed a zone defense (which they ran more than any other team in the league). The zone discombobulated LeBron so much it caused rumors about his personal life. Dallas was simply, cliche as it may be, the better team. There’s a reason LeBron looked unclutch against the Mavs and not the Bulls or Celtics.

They exposed his and his team’s flaws (there are other people on the team, including Dwyane Wade). As much as LeBron and Wade got better together over the course of the season, neither is comfortable without the ball and neither is a catch and shoot guy. LeBron’s passivity may have been a result of giving up the rock and going to Wade who had the matchup advantage. They were taking turns against a team that shared. They are a work in progress. One could argue both on the court and off. LeBron deferred to Wade too much off it (seemingly looking for approval in press conferences), got yelled at by him on it and then deferred to everyone, failing to attack the hoop IN THE NBA FINALS! They make their teammates better but they need to learn to make each other better.

The Heat and LeBron failed. But their story is not yet complete. They are not failures yet. Remember when Dirk Nowitzki was considered a soft choker? Now he and his team are celebrating a well deserved championship.

(Oh, for those who enjoy reading this sentence…I was wrong. LeBron shrunk in the moment, whatever the reason. And I do think his psyche played into it, just not as much as the Dallas Mavericks did.)

Did all the talk get to him? Maybe. He can’t win for winning because an overall excellent effort in game three was met with criticism for not taking over and people were already trying to discredit him by labeling Dwyane Wade the Finals MVP. Perhaps there is a chance he was trying to prove (subconciously?) that he didn’t need to try to take over to win, that he could win in other ways and was therefore disengaged.

Is he worn out? Reasonable. He never sits in the 2nd half and has seemingly played forty-plus minutes in every playoff game. In fact, minutes-wise, he’s logged almost two full games more than Wade and Chris Bosh. Still, he’s too freakish an athlete for me to totally buy that.

Did he choke? That would seem silly considering his clutch numbers throughout his career and his numerous money games against Boston and Chicago. Those still count.

Is his relationship with Wade fracturing? This seems particularly absurd. However, as some would paint it, Wade is William Wallace and LeBron is a trembling puppy dog.

Or maybe there is no explanation, at least no non-baskeball one. Maybe he just had a bad game. Remember, we were looking for an explanation for Wade’s poor play against the Bulls. We were wondering if he was hurt. He looks fine now.

LeBron has had curious games before, most prominently game five against the Celtics last year (I would lump game three against them this year and game one against Chicago in the same category). They proved to be isolated events.

I’m betting that how he and his team respond to this curious performance will provide a much better explanation than any of us can conjure up.

But as entertaining as Shaq is off the court, it’d be a shame to let that overshadow what he did on it. He was amusing off the court, on it, he was dominant. So dominant that he probably stopped himself (free throw woes) more often than his opponents did. The dude made nearly 60% of his shots for his career. Yes, many of them were dunks but that’s because teams couldn’t stop him from getting dunks. I hate to break it to some people but the dunk is an effective shot. (How are you supposed to keep a 7-1, 325 lb. guy from going where he wants?)

Shaq stands alongside Hakeem Olajuwon as the greatest centers I have ever seen. And anyone who leaves him out of the top five centers ever is probably hating. In fact, his career player efficiency rating stands at third all time amongst all players.

They didn’t call him/he didn’t call himself Shaq Diesel for nothing.

Miami is going to win the NBA Finals for a similar reason. Dallas hasn’t seen anything like the Heat defense. The average total score in the Western Conference Finals was 206 points. The average total score in the Eastern Conference Finals was 177 points. I’d say that indicates one series was more highly contested at the defensive end than the other. At one point during game five of the WCF I found myself laughing at the stark difference in defensive intensity of Mavs-Thunder in comparison to Heat-Bulls.

Meanwhile, Miami just got done playing two of the three best field goal percentage D’s in the league (they are the other member of the top three). Playing the Mavs is going to feel like running on wet sand after being mired in quicksand (Dallas was 8th in Opp FG%, 11th so far in the playoffs).

The counter argument to this is the Dallas offense. They’ve got shooters. More importantly, they’ve got Dirk Nowitzki. Well, that argument works both ways. The Mavs have to deal with LeBron, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. They make up a pretty good offense themselves, they’ve just been fighting against elite opposition. The Heat were the only team in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Their balance may come through imbalance while Dallas’ comes through overall balance but that doesn’t mean the sum of Miami’s parts is not greater. They are the best team.

And then there’s that LeBron guy. Let’s see how Dirk likes it when he faces the same situation Rose did.

Heat in five.

Both of those guys are great players. All Stars. A part of the new wave of NBA greatness. However, it is greatness that has been fast tracked by perception. And there is a thin line between overrated and rated properly.

Durant is a problem. Dude is darn near seven feet tall and the back-to-back scoring champion. But he doesn’t impact all aspects of the game like a true super duper star (you know the topic is thin when you have to classify super duper). There are too many times when he is muscled around and can’t even get the ball down the stretch. As a result, the Thunder have been involved in several postseason clutch situations where it seems like they are attempting to get the worst shot possible and then top it on the next possession. And if KD is not scoring, sometimes you don’t even realize he’s out there.

Meanwhile, Rose is simply not efficient enough to be rated where he is. He’s barely shooting over 40% for the playoffs. That is due in large part to having to shoulder a huge chunk of the offensive load for his team. It’s also due in large part to his decision making and shot selection.

Both Rose and Durant are top ten players; namely great players. They just don’t quite belong in the very top class with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwight Howard, a healthy Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant (still gotta show respect). Their ascension was rushed because they’re new and because they’ve both kind of been the anti-LeBron.

Durant got the love for his scoring burst with Team USA and for quietly signing an extension in Oklahoma City. Rose for being the best player on a surprising Chicago Bulls squad and doing it with actions not words. That doesn’t make them better. It doesn’t make them the best.

Those two guys are coming for the top. They don’t have far to go. They’re just not there yet. It’s really not fair to expect them to be.

Statistics are not perfect. There is no perfect statistic. For instance, Udonis Haslem was -11 during his time on the court in game two of the Eastern Conference Finals. Clearly he had a more positive impact than that. This can be shown with another statistic, zero. That’s how many offensive rebounds the Bulls had when Haslem was on the floor.

My point being (one that I have belabored), statistics are a better evaluative tool than simply what you think. This is because they are recorded history. They are what happened. They can be manipulated, they can be used with an agenda but they can also tell a larger story.

Haslem was -11 in 23 minutes. To me +/- is not a very useful stat in a one game sample size. Too many other factors come into play. However, I have used that very stat to argue against Derrick Rose as the MVP because the Bulls outscored opponents with Rose on the bench…for the entire season; a much larger sample size. Still, one may accuse me of only using that particular stat to support my argument.

Let’s move on to more cut and dry numbers. I say LeBron James (him again?) is a better jump shooter than Kobe Bryant. You may say blasphemy. You would be incorrect. It is actually a factual statement. LeBron shot a higher percentage than Kobe on jump shots this season. He shot a higher % on threes too. In fact, he shot better on mid-range jumpers than everyone not named Dirk Nowitzki and Ray Allen. Yet people will still argue against this as if it is an outrageous statement. The same way they’ll argue against LeBron being the most efficient player even though every statistical measure bares it out.

Using one stat as the basis of an argument or using statistics as your only argument is unwise. But arguing against fact is irrational. I often am reminded of Will Ferrell’s character in “Zoolander” when debating people on some of these topics. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills because the counter arguments are literally insane.

There is one stat that jumps out at me from the first game of the Eastern Conference Finals. That stat is 87 to 68. Those are the field goal attempts for the Bulls and Heat respectively. The Bulls took 19 more shots. They had 31 second chance points. That was more than the difference in the game.

We now know the question. Does Miami have the answer? They’ve had the answer for everything else. LeBron James and Dwyane Wade can’t play together…wrong. The Heat can’t close a close game…wrong. They can’t beat good teams…wrong. They can’t beat Boston…wrong. Something tells me they’ll be up to this challenge too.

However, maybe the Bulls are the team that is built to expose Miami’s weaknesses; namely everyone not named LeBron, Wade or Bosh. Chicago has four big guys who are better than any big on the Heat. They are long, energetic and versatile. And simply way more good.

A healthy Heat team could counter with Udonis Haslem. The guy playing the role of Udonis Haslem at the moment probably won’t pass the muster. They might be better off asking LeBron to play big and focusing on the glass. They’re definitely better off playing faster. I’m not sure the exact answer.

Whatever the answer, they’ve always had it. The Bulls just may be their trick question. (Or they could win game two and totally shift the narrative.)

It is easy to find failure if it is the only thing you are looking for. LeBron James turned the ball over with 19 seconds left in game four of Heat-Celtics. Therefore he failed. Therefore he is not clutch.

Not everyone shares that sentiment but I’ve certainly heard plenty of it. Did he fail in that specific instance? Sure. Even he would admit it. Did he fail in the clutch? Absolutely not.

Was it un-clutch when he carried the team offensively in the first half? Was it un-clutch when he hit the answer three in front of the Celtics bench after Boston had taken the lead? Was it un-clutch when he scored 11 of Miami’s final 13 points in the fourth quarter? Was it un-clutch when he scored or assisted on the first two baskets in overtime? Was it un-clutch when he took a big charge in the same overtime period or when he defended the final shot in regulation?…Seems pretty clutch to me.

If you want to believe LeBron is not clutch or that he can never be an all-time great player because he plays with Dwyane Wade, fine. Just know you are only going on what you think and say and not what is actually transpiring. The height of irrational reasoning. Not clutch. Or smart.

There goes Lundberg defending LeBron again.

The Lakers met their embarrassing demise for a myriad of reasons. 1. They cannot even pretend to stop dribble penetration. Derek Fisher is too old and the rest of their guards are too not good. 2. Pau Gasol was MIA and not with the Heat. I don’t know which rumors are true but I do know something was wrong with him. 3. Kobe Bryant is more jump shooter than anything else now. The Mavs were able to match up with him one on one with elder statesman Jason Kidd.

It’d be easy (and kind of fun) to blame it on Kobe and pile on him for being crushed in an elimination game again. It wouldn’t be right. He is no longer the best player in the game but he still has great value. Just not enough to carry a team. Even when he was at his best he either missed the playoffs or got knocked out in the first round trying to do it by himself. And with whatever version of Gasol that was out there, the Lakers did not have enough.

Barring some sort of miracle trade, I don’t know if they will again in the Kobe era. His run will end at five rings. Not too shabby (though you know it bothers him it is not quite Jordanesque). Still, it’s a ton of career collateral.

As for Phil Jackson, the ring on his big toe says enough.

Director Kenneth Branagh is able to bring Asgard to life realistically a la “Lord of the Rings” without the plodding pace. He’s helped by the performances of his cast. Chris Hemsworth IS Thor. His take on the character is just as good as Robert Downey Jr.’s was on Tony Stark. That is high praise. He pulls off strong, hot-headed and oblivious with epic charisma. And Tom Hiddleston is a worthy foil as his brother Loki.

What Marvel is doing is one of the coolest and most ambitious things I’ve ever seen attempted. They are creating a comic book continuity on screen and they are killing it. Thor is now a part of this universe and he entered with the force of his powerful hammer Mjolnir (I’ll take any excuse to type Mjolnir).

Thor is so good it makes me want to smash a Frost Giant. Word to Odin.

Why isn’t Derrick Rose the MVP? I’ll go with the simplest answer. He’s not good enough. That sounds crazy because Derrick Rose is awesome and he certainly is. He’s the most athletic point guard I’ve ever seen. However, I don’t believe he is one of the top five players in the league. And logic tells me it is virtually impossible to be the most valuable guy in the entire league if you aren’t amongst the very top handful of guys in the league.

Then there’s the numbers. Numbers aren’t everything, what you see counts too. But numbers are records of events and are much more reliable than opinion or hearsay. If a box score says a guy took 27 shots and made eleven of them, he did. That’s a fact. Factually, amongst the top seven scorers in the NBA, Derrick Rose shot the lowest percentage. Additionally, the contributions of his teammates (and maybe to a greater degree his coach) have been understated. The Bulls were near the very top of the league in defense and rebounds. If you showed me a team that was at the top of the league in defense and rebounding, I’d say you’ve shown me at least a 50-win team, regardless of who is on it. Plus, Chicago actually outscored the opposition with Rose off the floor, for the season.

This wasn’t a year where there was a clear cut MVP. But let’s use the guy nobody wanted to get the award as an example, LeBron James. LeBron scored more points than Derrick Rose, he shot a better percentage than Rose, he grabbed more rebounds than Rose, he dished out nearly the same number of assists as Rose and when he was on the floor, his team crushed opponents. When he wasn’t, they played opposing teams even. Those are facts. I’d probably give him the MVP again because I truly believe the best player is always the MVP; he’s the best player. However, if you don’t want to give it to him because he plays with Dwyane Wade, who is nearly as good, fine.

Do you want to give it to a player who helped his team overachieve (as many credit Rose for doing with the Bulls), what about Chris Paul? Or if you want to give it to the guy who was most indispensable to his team, who fit that description better than Dwight Howard (the other guy I might’ve voted for)? And then there are the cases for Dirk Nowitzki and Kobe Bryant. Just because they’ve done it for years doesn’t make what they’re doing any less good.

I feel Rose has benefitted from confirmation bias, which is people’s tendency to favor information that confirms their preconceptions and ignore the rest. For instance, when Derrick Rose makes one of his unbelievable forays to the bucket (I swear he can teleport) or hits a late driving layup to put the Bulls ahead, people exclaim ‘that’s why he’s the MVP!’. But they may ignore the two or three missed shots he had before then that the Bulls survived because of their defense. Meanwhile, with LeBron, when he does something positive, it’s what he’s supposed to do. But when he fails, it’s magnified, ‘it’s what he always does’. The numbers are the best device to combat this sort of thinking.

Derrick Rose deserves the MVP. He just isn’t the MVP.

The Boston Celtics already are and always will be tied into LeBron’s legacy. You could even argue they are the impetus for the formation of the current Miami Heat. Clearly LeBron realized he was never going to get past them with his Cavs squad. But they will also help determine what direction his legacy heads from here. Will the Celtics be like the Pistons were for Michael Jordan, the team he eventually had to hurdle in order to finally hoist the trophy or will they be the team that continually knocks him down a peg and keeps him in the ringless club along with other greats like Charles Barkley and Karl Malone?

The Celtics have a legacy at stake here too. This group will be remembered as a great team. They’ve already won a title and were within a few minutes of another. Still, if they can dispatch the Heatles and somehow snare another championship, the names Doc Rivers, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo will mean more than they already do; both individually and collectively.

The C’s have successfully suffocated individual players like LeBron and Kobe Bryant. They may be able to do the same to the LeBron, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh trio. If the other, much more not good members of the Heat can’t hit shots from the outside, they will. But it is up to LeBron and Wade to make sure they don’t. Both guys were eliminated by this same team (minus Kendrick Perkins of course) last year with LeBron suffering the lowest moment of his basketball career in the infamous game five. They should’ve seen enough of them by now to know how to attack their defense. Unless the Celtics D is simply Tyson-like and impregnable.

Either way, legacies will be shaped and careers partially defined by this 2nd round series, the biggest one I can remember. I suppose I’ll take Miami in seven but I’m not sure I believe it.

Game one was the best example and even then Chauncey Billups went down in the final minute. The series was over the second that happened. It was only exacerbated when Amar’e Stoudemire’s back transformed him into Bo Outlaw. Carmelo Anthony and the scrub brigade wasn’t a playoff worthy team and they would’ve been smoked by the likes of the Pacers and 76ers much less the Boston Celtics.

For Boston, I believe the winner of their inevitable series with the Heat will win the title. Especially now that going against Toney Douglas and the Knicks defense has fixed whatever was wrong with Rajon Rondo.

For New York, the future is bright because the core is there. The question now…is Mike D’Antoni the man to lead them toward said bright future? Because of the tumultuous roster he’s had and the bad timing with injuries, it’s unfair to fire him. But does that make it the wrong move? Is he the guy you believe will eventually lead you to a championship? Finger gun to head, I say no.

–Chris Paul is cold as ice. When healthy, he’s in my top five and far and away the best point guard in the league. I’d take him over Derrick Rose and Deron Williams without thinking about it (with a clean knee slate of course). The New Orleans Hornets have no business being tied with the Lakers. That’s all CP3.

–Derrick Rose is the most athletic point guard of all time. And he seems to have the ability to carry his team on his shoulders at the right moments. However, he’s going to have to shoot the ball better and take better shots (while getting his teammates involved) if the Bulls are going to be the threat their number one seed indicates they should be.

–At some point the Heat are going to make a last second shot, right? Well, they’ve made one. LeBron is 1-6 in the last five seconds to win or tie (Wade is 0-5). In fairness, Kevin Durant is 1-10 in the same situation. So, it’s oversimplifying things to put so much stock in those five seconds. The bigger deal is their slow starts and their lack of overall team production. But that’s not how the narrative is written and LeBron’s season (and reputation) will be defined by a handful of seconds if they/he don’t get it together.

–The Thunder are a legit title threat.

–The Grizz have a legit chance to beat the Spurs. In fact, I think they will.

–Nice to see a retro Brandon Roy performance. Clap for him.

–The next big non-lockout, non on the court NBA story will be the future destination of Dwight Howard. I see no basketball reason he would stay in Orlando. They don’t have the supporting cast around him and don’t have the resources to get one (Gilbert Arenas’ contract is the opposite of a resource). They may be wise to move him while they can get the most return.

Nearly every NBA champion had at least one mega star (most have had two or three). The exception that proves this rule is the 2004 Pistons. Those guys won behind exceptional balance and defense. And it’s not like they didn’t basically start five guys at an All Star level or better.

This year’s Denver Nuggets are a great story. They also play a fun style of basketball, ‘the right way’ as some would call it. Yet, they have no shot of making noise going forward in the playoffs (I’m not just typing this b/c they are down 2-0 to OKC…well, that is the reason I’m writing it now but I knew it before). They have no shot because they don’t have the player who creates his own shot. They don’t have their best player. Championship teams don’t boast Nene and Kenyon Martin as their most recognizable stars.

Basketball is a bit of a paradox. It’s the sport where both individual players and team chemistry have the greatest impact. In order to win, you need both. Just playing hard and together is not enough. Don’t blame me, it’s science.

WEST

Los Angeles over New Orleans in four: I am dumbfounded the Hornets are in the playoffs. They stink. It says a lot about Chris Paul, even though I think he’s been playing more like a vet than a youngster with his balky knee, that they are. New Orleans simply doesn’t have the talent to hang with Kobe and company.

Spurs over Grizzlies in six: Memphis will make this tough on San Antonio. They have good size (Gasol and Randolph) which is a weakness of the Spurs and their perimeter defense is nasty, led by Tony Allen and Shane Battier. However, the Spurs did win 61 games.

Oklahoma City over Denver in five: I like the Nuggets but this is a bad matchup for them. Their athleticism does not give them an advantage over the Thunder like it does most teams and OKC has two closers while they have none.

Portland over Dallas in seven: The Blazers are well coached and their roster boasts LaMarcus Aldridge, Gerald Wallace and Nicolas Batum. That means they’re equipped to handle Dirk Nowitzki, who basically is the Mavs. Dallas is headed for another early exit.

EAST

Chicago over Indiana in four: There is nothing about the regular season that would have one believe the Bulls won’t win the title. They are at the top in defense and rebounding, beat every team in the league and manhandled the top teams. I’m hesitant to pick them though because I don’t know if they have another gear, a real shooting guard or enough firepower. They won’t need those things against the Pacers.

Orlando over Atlanta in five: The Hawks actually match up well with the Magic. Jason Collins, otherwise worthless, gives them a legitimate body against Dwight Howard. Still, I find nothing about Atlanta inspiring, including their effort. Stan Van Gundy and his sports coat and turtle necks move on.

Miami over Philadelphia in four: I do believe LeBron James and Dwyane Wade have another gear and they can beat the Sixers on cruise control. Andre Iguodala may be the best perimeter defender in the league, yet he still can’t handle LeBron. And they have absolutely no answer for Wade.

Boston over New York in six: Chauncey Billups, Amar’e Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony have only played 18 games together. The Celtics are battle tested. Plus, they obviously have the edge defensively. Still, the Knicks do trot out the aforementioned players and that will give them a chance in every game and when Mike D’Antoni’s team is hitting its threes, they are unstoppable. This is clearly the most interesting series and I don’t think it’ll disappoint. It will likely end in disappointment for New York.

With all the talk about game-winning shots recently, Carmelo Anthony hit one right on cue. And why not, he’s the best on the planet at it. Don’t blame me, it’s science.

Anthony has canned shots at close to a 47% clip in those situations. Meanwhile, guys like LeBron James and Kobe Bryant are much closer to 30%.

Does this mean that Melo possesses the elusive “clutch gene” I constantly hear referenced? Sure it does. In order to perform in those spots, one must have some sort of mettle. However, there is a more fundamental reason why Anthony excels in these particular situations.

While Kobe and LeBron have traded off the scoring lead yearly in what 82games.com defines as “clutch” (4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points), they remain approximately 15% less efficient than Melo in the final seconds. It’s not because they lack the mental acumen (no one would ever accuse Bryant of that), it’s because their games are different.

In the final seconds, Kobe is likely taking one of the most difficult shots imaginable. He’s the best difficult shot maker I’ve ever seen but no one can hit the type of looks he takes at a high percentage. LeBron is more likely to barrel to the basket (into the heart of the defense) or shoot from the outside. Melo, on the other hand, is most likely to put the ball in the bucket from mid-range, that’s his game.

Long two pointers are the least efficient shots in basketball. As a defense, if you can force a guy into taking a long two, you’ve done your job. Well, Carmelo is better at making the long two than anybody. That’s where he lives. While it’s not the most efficient spot (though his efficiency overall has gone up thus far as a Knick as have his assist rates) for a 48 minute period, it’s the spot where Carmelo Anthony is more comfortable than all the other guys likely to take a last second shot.

In the final seconds, the defense is generally trying to prevent an open look at a three and individual defenders are playing a step off of stars to prevent them from getting to the bucket. They hope to force the star into a difficult 12-18 footer, put a hand up and live with the results. 12-18 feet is where Melo makes his living, the mid-range is his range.

So, is Carmelo Anthony clutch? Of course he is. But it’s just as much about his game as it is his brain.

Today news came out that LeBron’s mom was arrested for allegedly assaulting a parking valet. I haven’t tweeted about that. Many people have. The tone of those tweets and the reaction to the story are a tad unsettling. I get that people hate the guy (I’m still perplexed how deep the hate runs for some…over a TV show) but I thought it was in a good natured root against him sort of way for most. Perhaps it is, yet I get the sense there is a fairly large contingent who legitimately took joy in Gloria James’ arrest.

I’m not saying it’s not ok to joke about it. I hate when people do that and pass broad judgments from their high horses. I also don’t think any issue is that black and white. There are no rules about what is alright and what is off limit for jokes. That’s part of why we all like comedy. I’m sure I’ve made plenty of jokes about “touchy” subjects. I guess it’s a feel thing. If something is funny and seems like it is coming from a good natured place, it’s cool. If it’s not funny and feels mean spirited, it isn’t. (Whether it’s funny is the most important factor.) Impossibly subjective and inevitably hypocritical I know but that’s why some people are good at it and others aren’t.

I haven’t found anything funny enough or good natured enough to tweet about LeBron’s mom. Say what you want about LeBron the guy and his excessive use of the third person but to me, the most impressive thing about him off the court is that he’s been able to conduct himself the way he has considering his upbringing. His mom was sixteen when she had him, his father was an ex-con who wasn’t around and he wound up living with family friends and coaches for much of his youth. He went from those circumstances to being the youngest athlete ever thrust on to the public stage. A large jump and quite a bit of attention to deal with (not that there aren’t awesome perks to rapidly becoming rich and famous). Now he’s hanging out with Warren Buffett and launching partnerships with English soccer clubs. Pretty impressive; postgame press conference and Decision special gaffes notwithstanding.

When LeBron yelled at his mom to sit down during a game against the Celtics a few years ago (pictured above), I found that funny. A 26-year-old having to parent his own mother I don’t find very funny at all.

Eventually, it simply seems like the time is right to turn against or pile on someone. Brett Favre was consistently lauded by nearly everyone but over the last year or so a growing contingent began harshly criticizing him (I was a trailblazer in this movement). LeBron James was the chosen one, now he’s the one many choose to direct their scorn upon. Those are just a couple high profile examples.

Often, there is a major event (retirements for Favre, “Decision” for LeBron) or failure in a big game that acts as the impetus for a change in the tone of the coverage one receives. For Derek Jeter, it was his contract situation this past Summer.

Fair or not, the time is nigh for Jeter to face the heat (and get the sort of treatment that’s been bestowed upon the Miami Heat). It’s already started after a measly three games. And if Jeter keeps hitting balls into the ground, it will only get worse. He is going to face an onslaught of negative attention and the only defense is consistent excellence.

There was a “South Park” episode about Britney Spears that dealt with our society’s need to build people up and tear them down. By the end of the show, the masses had moved on to Miley Cyrus. We’re seeing it happen with Charlie Sheen right now. Just a few weeks ago he was the toast of the town, now he’s being labeled an embarrassment. I’m tired of him too but this reaction is just part of the machine.

Jeter is dealing with the machine now. Many of the same people who lauded him for years are anxiously waiting for him to turn around so they can blast him in the back of the head with a steel chair. He could go from the captain to captain overrated in the time it takes him to hit a weak roller to second base. (I never said I wasn’t part of the machine.)

This morning at work, we all gathered around the computer to watch YouTube clips of the Rock from WWE Raw. I’m pro-pro wrestling (if you follow me, you know I love making wrestling references), however I haven’t followed it regularly in years. The Rock’s return was enough to get me and others to tune in (searching clips on the internet counts as tuning in right?). It brought me back to my high school days when at Monday’s soccer or basketball practice I would be eagerly anticipating the night’s wrestling action. And on Tuesday, the events of the previous night would be the sole subject of conversation thanks to the exploits of Stone Cold, Mankind and of course, “The Great One”.

And great he is. The dude can literally stand in front of a capacity crowd, say nothing and have them in the palm of his hand. Then, when he does decide to utter a clever insult or one of his should be tired catch phrases (somehow they still work, I know I finish them myself while watching), they go into a frenzy. On cue. It’s incredible.

Seeing The Rock back in the squared circle may be enough to get me to order WrestleMania (and catching an episode of Raw confirms that the wrestling music interruption is the greatest thing in life).

They have now allowed the Cavs, Bucks and Bobcats to light them up. Matt Carroll completed a driving layup, Boris Diaw was slashing to the hoop and Kwame Brown was dominating the paint. Those three things happening all at once is more unlikely than VCU and Butler making the Final Four in the same year. That could only happen due to the Knicks defense. LeBron and Wade are just now figuring out how to play together in Miami, nearly a full season later, but they won many games anyway because they play defense.

It’s tough to single out one problem. Carmelo Anthony was the big change so it’s easy to blame him but he’s played well recently. Meanwhile, Amar’e Stoudemire looks like a statue after dominating for most the season and Chauncey Billups is playing more like Mr. Bad Shot than Mr. Big Shot. Then there’s the defense (I believe I mentioned that already).

When everything is going wrong, people look to the head coach. And New Yorkers have been looking for a reason to unleash their frustrations on Mike D’Antoni. D’Antoni is now coaching for his job and his reputation.

The win over the Magic last night was a good place to start.*

People are crazy. Seventeen games do not define one’s career. Carmelo Anthony is not Stephon Marbury just as he is not LeBron James. The Nuggets are not headed to the Finals just as the Knicks are not headed for the lottery.

I was never a gigantic Melo fan. But that was more because of who he was not than who he was. Simply becoming a Knick did not put him on the level of guys like LeBron or Wade or Kobe or Howard. It also did not tarnish his legacy already. That book has not been written. He is an all-world scorer and he will remain an all-world scorer; how far that will take him and how far he can help carry a team remain to be seen.

I was for the trade. I still am. The Denver Nuggets are not playing well because they got rid of Carmelo Anthony. And with respect to the guys they got, all good players (I doubt Wilson Chandler and Raymond Felton are there next year), they are not playing the way they are because of them either. The Nuggets are on a roll because they cleansed a toxic work environment. It must feel like a dark cloud has been lifted around there. While the Melo-Drama was ongoing, those guys were incessantly pestered with questions, were uncertain about their own futures and were playing with a star they knew didn’t want to be there. Once the trade was made they could relax. As a result they’ve been playing hard, playing unselfishly and guys like Nene and Ty Lawson, who were already there, are excelling. However, what they are missing and what will show itself come playoff time, is the hardest piece to find, their best player.

Meanwhile, the Knicks had to make the move because they have a limited window. Amar’e Stoudemire has four years on his contract after this season. Pairing him with Melo gives them a better shot to win than allowing good, young players who will never be what Melo already is to grow around him. Can a team built around just Carmelo and Amar’e ultimately win a championship? Probably not. But it’s up to those two guys to prove they can elevate their games and the games of their teammates. As it will be up to their coach, whether it is Mike D’Antoni or someone else going forward, to hold them accountable for doing so. And it is up to team management to make the correct decisions regarding filling out the roster around them, starting with acquiring a non-scrub at center and continuing with deciding what to do with Chauncey Billups and whether to do everything possible to pursue a third max player.

As is, we are watching a team go through a baptism by fire, very public practices held inside Madison Square Garden. Right now the public opinion is shifting toward disaster. I expect that opinion to shift by the end of the season. There will be hope. Nothing promised but at least promising.

That or the Nuggets will win the title.

So the NFL moved kickoffs from the 30 to the 35 yard line. I hope I’m not out of turn in asking, why?

The committee behind the rule change says player safety was the impetus behind the decision. I’ll play my cynical card on that. However, I’m not going to feign outrage or even annoyance at the move. It’s five yards. I can’t foresee five yards drastically impacting the game or my enjoyment of it. That’s silly. I probably shouldn’t be writing about it.

But I do find it odd that many of the rule changes tend to start in the kicking game and also move toward reducing the number of kickoff returns. If there are no kickoff returns, then what is the point in watching kickoffs? Check that, what’s the point in even having kickoffs? Check that again, why not just get rid of the kicking game altogether?

Kickoff/punt returns and game-winning or tying field goals are the only aspect of the kicking game possessing even a modicum of excitement (and just happen to be one of the most tense and exciting moments in all of sports…the reason I’m not actually in favor of what I’m arguing here). Otherwise all kicking does is screw things up. Many teams, that are likely better than their opponent, lose simply on the foot of a bad kicker. ‘Well then get a better kicker’ one might say. They could easily continue, ‘kicking is part of the game, so you aren’t truly the better team if you are lacking in that area’. Valid points, though I still fail to see a true reason why kicking is an integral part of the game.

We all want to see our teams go for it on short fourth downs. We all go for it ourselves on fourth down when playing a video game. And I find it hard to believe that significantly more exciting and high leverage plays wouldn’t occur if punts and field goals were eliminated. The star players would have the ball in their hands and would decide their team’s fate. Shaun Suisham wouldn’t.

Ultimately I wouldn’t remove the intrigue of the fourth down decision and I wouldn’t change anything about something that has proven to be an absolutely monstrous success and truthfully, I was just searching for something to blog about. However, if they are going to continue to change the kicking game, why not just kick it out of the game period?

In fact, the structure is so strong that it is able to overcome poorly played games, a lack of dominant teams, a dearth of overall talent and games that are lost more than they are won.

Close doesn’t always mean good. Some of these close finishes remind me of the “South Park” episode where the boys find playing baseball boring, thus they intentionally try to lose so they can go home and play video games. The only problem is their opponents employ the same strategy. Watching the tourney this weekend, I thought, it’s not about who makes the last big play down the stretch in a bunch of these matchups, it’s about who makes the last big mistake.

However, the drama remains because of the bracket and the stakes. Seasons end with every game. Many kids are done playing high-level basketball with each final buzzer. And stars are created just for this time of year, whether that translates to the next level or not.

It may also be the only major sporting event where interest wanes as it goes along. But there must be interest in the first place in order for it to wane. The structure of March Madness ensures there always will be.

Well then, surely the lockout will ruin my football watching in April? There’s no football in April you say. How about May? Nope. Certainly June? Uh uh. July? You’ve figured it out by now. I could even go one more month if I really wanted to push it.

And that’s why I have a difficult time feigning outrage regarding the NFL lockout and the union’s decertification. Until it impacts the NFL season, I really don’t care that much. I’m not sure how the process going to the courts changes things either. From what I’ve read, that could conceivably make it more likely the season isn’t altered. At least the court will make some sort of decision. It may get messier now but nothing was going to be accomplished putting the NFL and NFLPA in the same room pushing their politics anyhow.

In the end, I’m rooting for the players to get the best deal possible. Because if it comes down to a staring contest, the owners will win. They have more capital. I’m rooting for the players that is, until the season is jeopardized. Then I’m simply rooting for a deal of any kind. And I don’t think I’m alone in these feelings.

Until then, I’ll continue to gloss over the rhetoric spewed by the figureheads and will simply go back to filling out my bracket. That’s what I was going to do in March anyway.

Ok, I’m almost ready to admit that the Heat’s problems are much bigger than I initially thought. I’m also almost ready to admit I was wrong. But not about how good LeBron James is. And not about how he and Dwyane Wade fit together. I was wrong about everyone else on the team.

LeBron and Wade may not be an ideal match, however, that only seems to be problematic at the very end of games. And making judgments on ten seconds of a 48- minute game is ridiculously short sighted. On the season, LeBron is shooting his second highest field goal percentage ever and averaging more than 26 points, seven rebounds and seven assists. Wade is dropping more than 25 points on the best shooting percentage of his career. Clearly, those two are not the problem.

The problem is the role the players, or lack thereof. That’s what I was wrong about. I said you put anyone alongside LeWade and they will succeed. Others said the Heat didn’t have the horses necessary to win a championship. Thus far, those people are looking smarter than I.

I still don’t believe you need anything more than solid role players next to those guys. But those role players must be tough minded and show a penchant for making big plays and big shots. Mike Miller (James Jones is by far the better option for them at this point) and the like have not proven to possess those traits.

It’s tough to deem them a failure until they are eliminated from the playoffs. Everyone wants to face them now, no one might want to face them a month from now. But they will remain fools in April if they don’t get more from their supporting cast and head coach.

(My sources say, from now on, every player on Heat not named LeBron and Wade will refrain from crying. They want to ensure they contributed nothing.)

The truth generally lies somewhere in between. I believe that is the case with the Miami Heat. The truth is somewhere between those who believe they are choke artists and those who argue statistics show margin of victory over the field is a much greater indicator of future success than close losses to good teams.

My eyes say they should be concerned about consistently coughing up leads and looking noticeably uncomfortable in late-game situations, another part of me thinks they should take solace in being able to build big leads and that every game they lose is close and to a quality opponent.

What’s more interesting is how they serve as a case study for modern media consumption. No team in history has been put under more of a microscope. Their latest stumbling blocks have happened in the span of a week but it seems like it has been a never-ending calamity. That’s because people can tweet and analysts can dissect events seconds after they transpire. And that’s the way many major figures and events will be handled going forward. Case in point is how closely the New York media is tracking Derek Jeter’s spring training at bats.

Consider this, and I don’t mean this as a shot, Kobe Bryant shoots less than 30% on game-winning or game-tying shots and has almost as many air balls as he does makes in those situations. Yet, he is considered the most feared player in those moments. Heck, I fear him more than anyone in those spots. That’s probably because the majority of his career did not take place under the current conditions.

So while the Heat certainly have some issues, the biggest takeaway I have from the last week of basketball is that Dwight Howard is totally underappreciated (Charles Barkley is not wrong about that) and must be considered a front-runner for league MVP.

With constant media coverage, on demand online information and an instant gratification society, “The Truman Show” no longer seems like a work of fiction. And that program has nothing on the Charlie Sheen show. I’ve never seen “Two and a Half Men” but I now understand why the man makes two million dollars an episode. He spouts lines off the top of his head that would stand out in some of the greatest comedies of all time.

However, this feels like a black comedy. Whether he’s clean or not, the guy has the look of a dope fiend. Whether he’s simply speaking his mind or not, no news about him, no matter how outlandish, would surprise me. Yes, he’s the one putting himself out there but everyone with a camera and a microphone is culpable for granting his wish.

Wait a second, what am I doing? I’m getting a little too weighty here. Maybe he’s just a genius. After all, the man does have tiger blood and Adonis DNA and is the most captivating person on the planet right now. He’s a battle tested bayonet, an F-18 and is somehow winning despite being in the midst of the most public downfall imaginable.

King Kong ain’t got nothing on Sheen!

Knicks fans must feel like they are on Charlie Sheen. It must be difficult to put into words how good it feels. After ten years of laughingstock status, they’re relevant and more than that, they have a chance to be very, very good.

I’m not going to totally overstate the importance of one win over the Heat (who have major problems executing in the half-court, a big reason for their record against good teams). New York did lose to the Cavs on Friday, however, there were positive things out there on the court that were impossible to ignore. Chief amongst those is that this new Knicks roster is equipped to play playoff style ball. They now have the ability to score when the game is slowed down and unless my eyes were deceiving me, they have the ability to play defense as well.

Chauncey Billups has become like a player-coach and perhaps the defensive coordinator Mike D’Antoni has always refused to hire, Amar’e Stoudemire’s flashes of being an intimidating defender are coming more often and I’m certain Carmelo Anthony has heard the knocks about that particular aspect of his game. While they may not have the personnel to address their biggest weakness, defensive rebounding, I don’t believe commitment to that side of the ball will be a problem.

Winning this type of game may be one small step for this Knicks team but it’s one giant leap for Knicks fans. Charlie Sheen for everyone!

The formula for winning a championship has almost always been to have two or more superstars (shockingly, this was not discovered by the Miami Heat). Before South Beach, there was Bird and McHale, Magic and Kareem, Jordan and Pippen, Kobe and Shaq, Pierce, Allen and Garnett and so on. However, there have been a few exceptions to prove that rule. Hakeem Olajuwon (when Jordan just so happened to be out of the league) and the Detroit Pistons.

The most recent Pistons championship team won with great defense and absurd balance. Balance led by their best player, Finals MVP and now New York Knick, Chauncey Billups. While Billups may never have been considered a “superstar” and is now 34-years-old, his impact on this trade is being totally discounted.

Those same Pistons went to the Finals back-to-back years with Billups at the helm. And Carmelo Anthony’s Nuggets never got out of the first round of the playoffs until Billups was traded to his team (they were in the Conference Finals that year…a place Billups went seven consecutive seasons). Billups is a winner and as tough as Raymond Felton played while donning New York on his chest, Billups is a tremendous upgrade for the Knicks at the point guard position.

He won’t be able to play the minutes Felton did but he runs the pick and roll better than almost anyone and his outside shot keeps opposing teams honest. If not, they will eat three pointers (he’s shooting 44% this year, 39% for his career). In fact, the typical learning curve experienced by a team undergoing such an overhaul will be severely lessened simply because Chauncey is running the team. He may not be the long-term answer. But for now, he already gives the Knicks their own big three.

As far as Carmelo Anthony goes, if you can trade Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler and Timofey Mozgov for him and then pair him with Amar’e Stoudemire, you do it. I don’t care if Donnie Walsh, Isiah Thomas or Homer Simpson is the one making the deal. It’s an unquestionably good one.

‘But we’ve seen it all before!’ Incorrect. I saw a handful of dunks that were completely unique. ‘But guys miss on their first attempt!’ Well, that’s because they’re attempting such absurdly impossible feats in order to satisfy the first complaint. Of course it has more impact when completed on the first try, that’s why DeMar Derozan’s second dunk may have been the best of the contest (that and the impossible athleticism displayed within), however, missing on the first couple tries does not take away from completing such phenomenal finishes.

I mean, there was a dunk from behind the free throw line, a dunk on two baskets, a dunk with three balls, a reverse windmill and a Vince Carter elbow dunk off a lob. Out of twelve dunks, all were impressive and some were spectacular. The worst dunk was over a car.

I didn’t think Blake Griffin should’ve won but that’s not important (and he’s like Hanzel…so damn hot right now). At the risk of sounding corny (virtual certainty), anyone who watched that won. The dunk contest is like anything else, some years are better than others and it’s only as good as the participants. But if you didn’t like this one, you simply do not like slam dunks.

I do.

Did Carmelo in fact create this situation? To a degree, yes. It is abundantly clear that he has let Denver know he doesn’t want to play there after his current contract and if they don’t want to lose him for nothing, they should trade him. Does that mean he is totally responsible for everything that has transpired since then? Absolutely not.

It is within his rights to leave after the season. He will be an unrestricted free agent. Telling the team of his intentions only helps them deal with reality the best way they see fit. But that can be done behind closed doors. Of course, it would be naive to believe it would stay there. Melo is a big star, the information would inevitably get leaked. However, that’s basically the end of his culpability.

He’s not the one asking himself questions. He’s not writing stories about himself. He’s not going on TV and talking about himself. He’s not reporting on what sources have told him. The media storm surrounding the “Melo-Drama” is as much a product of the media as it is Carmelo Anthony.

I’m not saying that is a bad thing. It’s a business. It only makes sense. The story is compelling. As a result, ratings and web clicks go up when the topic is broached. And it is broached often.

I’m just saying media members shouldn’t point their fingers at Carmelo Anthony. They really shouldn’t point their fingers at themselves either. They should just keep them on their keyboards and be happy the story exists. It certainly makes my job easier.

Look, I don’t pretend to know too much about hockey. But I do know one thing about it. The fighting doesn’t help the sport. It makes it look ridiculous and it should be abolished. I’m not saying that in reaction to the Islanders-Penguins brawl, I’m saying that in reaction to common sense.

There may be counter arguments thrown my way like ‘but everyone enjoys a good fight’ or ‘the fights are the reason I watch’. Those don’t really hold weight. Hockey’s ratings are not in the same stratosphere as football, basketball or baseball, so brawls as a ratings ploy is a failure. And yes, people do love watching a good fight but that is what sanctioned boxing and mixed martial arts bouts are for; you know, actual good fights. Hockey should be hoping fans are searching YouTube for spectacular goals, not amateur knockouts.

Hockey is a contact sport. So is football and the NFL doesn’t allow the same shennanigans. Isn’t fast-paced, high impact action enough? We’re talking about a game that is essentially the cousin of soccer and basketball; similar goals with different rules and equipment. Again, neither of those sports allows impromptu fist-a-cuffs.

Seeing guys try to throw punches on ice skates is entertaining on the surface (pun intended) but it creates the wrong perception. And if you don’t agree with me, I’ll throw my gloves right off and punch you in the face.

–Part of me feels for the Cavs players and head coach Byron Scott. Another part of me is amused by their unparalleled futility; mainly because of the criticism lobbed at LeBron James and especially because of Dan Gilbert’s post “Decision” letter. I’m not sure LeBron’s value has ever been more clear and don’t think Gilbert’s letter could look more ridiculous. He should write a new letter vowing that the Cavs will win a game before LeBron wins a title.

–When I think of the Utah Jazz, I think of three people…John Stockton, Karl Malone and Jerry Sloan. They’re all gone and now I think nothing of the Utah Jazz, especially once Deron Williams leaves.

–Brett Favre is rumored to appear on “Dancing with the Stars”. This is the greatest news ever. I wonder if they’ll let him dance in Wranglers.

–The NFL owners didn’t do themselves any favors in the public eye by walking out on a meeting with players. The owners are the true rich guys in this dispute and figuratively taking their ball and going home to their mansions certainly makes them look like the babies in this dispute, even if that isn’t the case. I empathize with the plight of the players but think I fall on the side of most everyone, I don’t care too much about this stuff unless it impacts games. If that happens, everyone’s wrong.

–It’s good to be Justin Bieber. I refuse to hate on the little guy, he’s doing big things. He’s got girls fawning over him, hit records, a sure to be hit movie and somehow, street cred. He’ll even be playing in the NBA Celebrity All Star Game. I think they should have the celebrity team play the Cavs.

–Aaron Rodgers is clearly the star of the moment. Dude is bona fide. He’s athletic, tough and throws absolute darts. If it wasn’t for some drops he put right on the hands of receivers, the Packers may have run away with the game earlier. But remember, it’s hard to get back to where he is right now. After last season, many people would have called Drew Brees the best quarterback in the world. For now, Rodgers has put himself into the conversation and can wear his Super Bowl ring and championship belt proudly.

–You know you are a star when you’re retired (allegedly), coming off a terrible season, are not directly involved in the game and yet still get mentioned by every talking head. Here’s to you Brett Favre.

–Sometimes you try to say something insightful and there is nothing there. The turnovers, as they often are, were the difference. The Steelers turned it over three times. The Packers scored 21 points off of turnovers. Pretty simple.

–The Super Bowl is a planned event. Somehow you’d think the host city would be aware of that. Apparently not. The streets were deserted leading up to the game and there weren’t enough seats when the game started, proving once again that most of the world works at a C- level.

–I’m not sure I know all the words to the National Anthem but I’m pretty sure I would have them down if I was performing it at the Super Bowl. Poor Christina Aguilera. Only that movie she made with Cher could be worse.

–I’m not sure I can properly address the Black Eyed Peas performance. I will say this. It was interesting. It felt like a Pepsi commercial featuring intergalactic, hip-pop Care Bears.

The New York Knicks are the most valuable franchise in the NBA. It’s incredible if you think about it. They’ve been putrid for ten years and with the first glimmer of hope, they pass the Lakers. We know this because monetary value is measurable.

Jay-Z was once asked to comment on Baby from Cash Money claiming that Lil’ Wayne was a better rapper and that they had more money than he does. He responded appropriately. He said the former was a matter of opinion but the latter could be checked. Peep Forbes.

What the heck am I getting at? Well, the value of franchises cannot be disputed. But one thing that is always disputed is the value of players. That is a matter of opinion and everyone seems to have an opinion on what “Most Valuable Player” actually means. And now that the NBA season is at its midpoint, the MVP chatter has begun.

To me, the most valuable player is the best player. The best player inherently has the most value. Value should equate somehow to impact on wins and losses. The best should have the most. Michael Jordan was the MVP every year he played.

There are many guys currently deserving of being in the discussion. Derrick Rose is averaging 25 points and 8 assists and has led the Bulls to the third best record in the East despite extended absences from Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah. Amar’e Stoudemire has made the Knicks relevant again and with some help has taken a team that was 18-26 at this time last year to 23-21 this year. Meanwhile, his former team is four games below .500 after checking in at six games above it a year ago. Dwight Howard is again a dominating defensive presence and again the Orlando Magic are a threat in the East with just one true star. Kobe Bryant and the Lakers are rounding back into form and Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have the Thunder near the top of the West. Then there is Chris Paul. The New Orleans Hornets are 31-16. They have no business being there, Paul has to get lion’s share of credit for that and could deserve the trophy at this moment.

However, when the talcum powder clears, I imagine that the most valuable player should follow the same path it has the past two years. Call me biased if you want and I severely doubt the writers will give it to him (both because he is unliked and because he teamed up with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh) but LeBron James is still the best player in basketball.

I’d bet by the end of the season the Heat have the best record in the league (if not, they’ll be right there). Meanwhile, the team that finished with the best record in the last two seasons is a rancid mess. The Cleveland Cavaliers have lost 18 in a row (LeBron erased the pride they were playing with at the beginning of the year). They are 8-37. Through 45 games a season ago, they were 34-11. That’s a greater % drop than the Bulls had the year after they lost Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Dennis Rodman and Phil Jackson. There’s only one major reason for that.

Like it or not, LeBron James has the greatest impact on wins and losses. As a result he probably will be the player deserving of being dubbed most valuable after the 82nd game has concluded.

This perplexes me. What about beating the Jets correlates to a shift in his character? And why is it being made out like Roethlisberger has overcome so much? Sometimes there doesn’t have to be a story. Because the story with Ben appears the same to me.

Ben Roethlisberger is a great quarterback. He is tough, difficult to bring down, makes plays that aren’t there and most of all, is super clutch. None of that has changed. That’s how he’s always been. When you add in an elite defense and respected figures at the head coaching position, you have the reason he’s headed to his third Super Bowl.

I’m not saying Roethlisberger isn’t a different dude than he was just a few months ago. He could be. I simply have no idea. All I know is what I saw Sunday did nothing to prove that. What I’ve seen this postseason has just reinforced what I already knew about him.

Big Ben is who we thought he was as a football player, a winner. That means nothing, one way or the other, about who he is off the field.

In the process, he also shoved Carmelo Anthony closer to the New York Knicks. Denver’s best offer is off the table. They may be able to get some interest from teams willing to rent Melo (Houston, Dallas) but those offers aren’t likely to be overwhelming. And the risk of letting Anthony walk away for nothing has to outweigh any ego related reluctance toward trading him to New York.

Knicks president Donnie Walsh has played a nice hand of poker. He has let the Nuggets leverage disappear publicly. It is now up to him (if he values Carmelo like we have been made to believe by the media) to get this done. He must make a fair offer that allows Denver to save face, yet still hold on to some of his young players. One could argue that he should let this go all the way to free agency but Denver doesn’t want that, Carmelo doesn’t want that and besides, there are some advantages to trading for him anyway (like possibly being able to hold on to Wilson Chandler due to salary cap rules).

It’s become abundantly clear that New York is where Carmelo wants to be. This whole saga reminds me of the Miami Heat situation. Those guys knew they wanted to play together. The same appears true for Melo and Amar’e Stoudemire.

My crystal ball is showing an image similar to the picture attached to this blog. It’s just a matter of time now.

Establishing an identity like that is an extremely difficult feat (no pun intended, really, I mean it). Getting rid of the stench of a losing culture is the first step, a tough one to take. We’re watching the Knicks attempt to do that now. The Jets have already taken that step. And the win over the Pats was them putting an emphatic foot down (doh!) at the end of said step.

Same old Jets no longer applies. In fact, Rex Ryan has flipped the script. He’s attempting to make you think of the same old Jets like you think of the same old Patriots or Spurs or Lakers or Steelers or any other team you think of when searching your mind for habitual winners.

A defense frustrating a Hall of Fame quarterback; same old Jets. Darrelle Revis playing coverage better than anybody ever has; same old Jets. The offensive line dictating the action; same old Jets. Perennial contenders; might just be the same old Jets.

The Jets did not win the Super Bowl. They can very easily be ousted by the Steelers. But they did win something. A new identity. A new culture. And their loud-mouthed, f-bomb dropping, foot loving coach is to thank for that.

Same old Jets.

Steelers (-3) over Ravens: Smash-mouth football! A good ol’ fashioned slobberknocker! A donnybrook! I’d like to make fun of the cliche phrases that will be used to describe this game, except they’re true. My favorite type of games are low scoring, hard-hitting ones where points feel like they are impossible to get. There are low-scoring games that are absurdly poorly played and there are high-scoring games where the same is true (see Seahawks-Saints). Then there are games like this one, likely to be low-scoring, yet played at the highest level. I trust Ben Roethlisberger more than I trust Joe Flacco (on the football field at least) and I like the Steelers defense over the Ravens defense. Those minor differences will be the difference.

Seattle (+10) over Chicago: I’m not sure who is more likely to throw multiple picks in this game: Matt Hasselbeck or Jay Cutler? Cutler would frighten me as a Bears fan and Seattle has played well a few weeks in a row now. That’s enough for me to pick them to cover. However, the Bears defense against the Seahawks offense will likely be too much for them to overcome.

Green Bay (+2.5) over Atlanta: The Packers are +148 on the season. That puts them second behind the Patriots in point differential. Now that they have some semblance of a running game, they actually might be the second best team in the league.

New England (-9) over New York Jets: Antonio Cromartie can curse out Tom Brady, Brady can smugly dismiss him, Rex can ask for a duel with Belichick and Wes Welker can say the word foot a lot. None of that matters. What really matters is that the Patriots are built to expose the Jets flaws. I loved the Jets gameplan against the Colts but they won’t be able to beat the Pats without getting to Brady. In order for the Jets to win, they’ll likely have to play even better and Mark Sanchez will have to be at his best (a risky proposition). The Patriots have beaten the Jets, the Colts, the Ravens, the Steelers, the Bears and the Packers; some of them by very wide margins. They are the best team, none of the other storylines matter. The foot soldiers take this one.

I’m not sure this is a commonly shared belief. It seems that the quarterback is either given total credit for a win or total blame for a loss. The two quarterbacks most directly responsible for the outcome of their respective games in the first round were Matt Hasselbeck and Matt Cassel. Hasselbeck was excellent (which is strange since he isn’t good anymore) in Seattle’s upset win over New Orleans and Cassel was brutally awful in Kansas City’s loss to Baltimore. The rest of the performances were more of a mixed bag.

I usually jump at the opportunity to criticize Peyton Manning for a poor playoff performance, however, I have no business doing that this time around. Peyton was not spectacular but he certainly played well enough for his team to win. He is in no way the reason the Colts will watch the rest of the season at home. On the other side, Mark Sanchez is receiving far too much credit for the Jets win. The Jets coaching staff had an exceptional game plan prepared and the rest of the team (Darrelle Revis deserves a shout-out for absolutely blanketing Reggie Wayne) executed it. Sanchez was solid down the stretch but if he didn’t throw every pass like it was an alley-oop to Blake Griffin before then, the game might not have been close. He deserves the same credit for the win as Manning does for the loss.

Then there was the Packers-Eagles game. Aaron Rodgers played very well and would’ve ended the game before halftime if it wasn’t for a blatant drop. He did have a big fumble though and wasn’t the difference in how it turned out. Meanwhile, Michael Vick had the decisive turnover, yet he also played very well and nearly strapped the team on his back again. Both of those guys are excellent quarterbacks and both showed it. The difference in that game was the rest of the Packers against the rest of the Eagles. It felt like Green Bay dominated and it was surprising the outcome was even in doubt.

Quarterbacks and coaches are the stars of the NFL. That’s the way it goes. That doesn’t mean it’s the way it is.

New Orleans (-11) over Seattle: Um, this is fairly easy. Not only were the Seahawks 7-9, four of those wins came against the NFC West and the Panthers.

Kansas City (+3) over Baltimore: I don’t believe the Ravens defense is nearly as fearsome as it used to be. Plus, these two teams play similar styles. Matt Cassel had a great year, Jamaal Charles had an insane yards per carry clip and their defense is fast. I’ll take the home dog.

Philadelphia (-3) over Green Bay: I think the winner of this game is going to the Super Bowl. I’ll take the Eagles to win it. Andy Reid is undefeated after byes (last week was basically a bye and helped Michael Vick heal) and has only lost once in the first round. Vick said that they would have beaten the Packers had he played the whole game in week one. He’ll likely play the whole game this time around.

Indianapolis (-3) over New York Jets: I thought this game was 50-50 all week. But the more I think about it, the more I keep coming back to the same point. The Jets lack of a pass rush is a looming fatal flaw. They are playing Peyton Manning. The same Peyton Manning who saw their defense in the AFC Championship game last year. What can they throw at him that he hasn’t seen and why should I believe they can pressure him? No pressure on Peyton=loss.

The new argument is around the Miami Heat (of course). The question is, whose team is it? LeBron James dubbed them the Heatles and people immediately began asking, who is Lennon and who is McCartney. They shared the most recent Eastern Conference player of the month award and while LeBron is the two time reigning MVP and the biggest star in the sport, Dwyane Wade is the one with the ring and the guy LeBron decided to join.

My answer to this conundrum is fairly simple. Wade’s Kobe, LeBron’s Shaq. Wade is the cold blooded killer. LeBron is the physically dominant specimen. Wade can get his shot at any time. LeBron dominates the entire game. This comparison even works for their personalities. Wade is more reserved and calculating. LeBron is more loquacious and playful.

Of course this comparison only works if they can replicate the success of the former Lakers duo. I wouldn’t bet against it.

New York Jets (-1) over Buffalo: Jets may rest some players but I’ll take them heading into the playoffs on a good note.

Atlanta (-14.5) over Carolina: I took the Panthers last week. I’d rather be wrong than do it again.

Cincinnati (+10) over Baltimore: Too many.

New England (-5.5) over Miami: Not enough.

Detroit (-3) over Minnesota: I’ll go with the home team.

Kansas City (-3.5) over Oakland: Same deal as with the Jets.

Cleveland (+6) over PIttsburgh: This one’s for Mangini!

Tampa Bay (+7.5) over New Orleans: Tampa will cover on pride alone.

Arizona (+6) over San Francisco: The 49ers should never give this many points.

Chicago (+9) over Green Bay: I don’t know why.

Philadelphia (-3) over Dallas: Kevin Kolb is playing for something I suppose.

Jacksonville (+3) over Houston: The Texans are garbage enough to lose to the Jaguars without David Garrard and Maurice Jones Drew.

New York Giants (-4.5) over Washington: I’m not even sure I believe this.

San Diego (-3.5) over Denver: Nothing to see here but the Chargers are better.

Indianapolis (-9.5) over Tennessee: The Titans are not playing like what one would call a good football team.

St. Louis (-3) over Seattle: The biggest game of the week and I simply don’t care.

Carolina (+15) over Pittsburgh: Too many points. The Steelers don’t usually win overwhelmingly and they aren’t overwhelming without Troy Polamalu.

Dallas (-7) over Arizona: I suppose the Cowboys are playing well enough to take them against John Skelton.

Baltimore (-4) over Cleveland: I suspect this game will be decided by less than a touchdown. Hopefully it will also be decided by more than a field goal.

Detroit (+3.5) over Miami: I like Detroit’s D-Line against Chad Henne.

New England (-9) over Buffalo: Bill Belichick called out his team after the Packers game. That’s enough for me.

Chicago (-1) over New York Jets: Bears D against Jets O (with hurting Sanchez and Holmes) feels a like a little too much to overcome.

St. Louis (-2.5) over San Francisco: I hate the NFC West.

Kansas City (-5) over Tennessee: I don’t know.

Jacksonville (-7) over Washington: The Jaguars need this one. The Redskins need help.

Denver (+2.5) over Houston: The way the Texans play disgusts me.

Indianapolis (-3) over Oakland: Colts over Raiders seems logical.

San Diego (-7.5) over Cincinnati: I believe it is still December.

New York Giants (+3) over Green Bay: The Giants need this desperately, for the playoffs and for themselves. Plus, Aaron Rodgers has missed two weeks and loves being sacked.

Seattle (+6.5) over Tampa: I like the Bucs to win but they aren’t explosive enough to cover.

Philadelphia (-14) over Minnesota: Why not?

New Orleans (+2.5) over Atlanta: In the sport where desire plays the biggest role, the Saints need this more.

This has to be it, right? He has to be done. It’s finally over. And I for one will really miss him.

After 297 consecutive starts (321 if you count the playoffs), Brett Favre did not suit up to play. Brett is often given excessive credit he may not deserve, this is not one of those instances. That number is incredible. I’ve seen Favre destroyed countless times by absolute monsters. Dude is a warrior. He’s just a warrior who’s time is past.

I’ve made fun (<–look, fun, Favre loves fun) of Favre more than anyone. That’s a big part of the reason I’ll miss him. He makes things more interesting. Some people love him (almost to a disturbing degree), some people legitimately can’t stand him but I’d argue that everybody enjoyed watching him. Whether it was his underhanded flips, long bombs followed by giddy celebrations or mind boggling interceptions; it’s nearly impossible to argue that the ol’ gunslinger didn’t add an extra element to each game in which he participated. The world is a better place for having Brett Favre in it.

His body is likely to force him to make the decision his mind and heart would not allow him to. Brett Favre’s Hall of Fame and absurdly entertaining career is over. (One last potshot for good measure…it finished on an interception yet again.)

All Wranglers will be worn at half-mast today.

So I get what it feels like. But oftentimes feelings are much more crushing than reality. Haven’t you ever dreaded a situation only to realize it wasn’t so bad once it actually happened? You don’t have to hold on to this hurt going forward. It doesn’t benefit you, it doesn’t erase what happened and it doesn’t punish those responsible.

Recently, Cavs and Knicks fans booed LeBron James heartily for his supposed wrongdoings (LeBron quota reached). It didn’t do them much good. Just like it won’t do Giants fans good to hold on to the pain or to spew venom like it is some sort of badge of honor. You’ll end up doing something like calling for Tom Coughlin’s job (again) and that is utterly ridiculous.

Think about it this way. It’s probably easier for the team to get over this than it is for you. First, they have the means to live a fairly high quality of life. Second, they have to go back to work and focus on the next opponent. In the Giants case, a win over that opponent gets them in the playoffs with a chance to live on. And they’ve already shown they are capable of playing with/beating anyone.

If the Giants are able to get over it, you will be too. Merry Christmas.

Arizona (+2.5) over Carolina: They’re both terrible so I’ll take the team receiving points.

Buffalo (+5.5) over Miami: Chad Henne is simply not good.

Cleveland (+1) over Cincinnati: Colt McCoy is better than Carson Palmer already.

Detroit (+6) over Tampa: The Lions pass rush is actually kind of good.

Houston (+1) over Tennessee: The Titans never win when Vince Young doesn’t play (1-10 over the last two seasons).

Jacksonville (+4.5) over Indianapolis: The Jaguars have matched up well with the Colts over the last several years and they might be the better team this year.

Kansas City (Closed) over St. Louis: The line is down because of Matt Cassel’s status. If Cassel plays, I’ll take the Chiefs wherever they set it.

New Orleans (+1) over Baltimore: The Ravens are overrated and the Saints are flying under the radar.

Philadelphia (+3) over New York Giants: Eli Manning is turning the ball over too much. That’ll cost them against Philly. To me, these are the two best teams in the NFC.

Dallas (-6.5) over Washington: The Redskins are a mess. At least the Cowboys are a mess with a newspaper on top of it.

Atlanta (-7) over Seattle: I hate the NFC West.

Oakland (-7) over Denver: The Broncos just got crushed by the Cardinals.

Pittsburgh (-6) over New York Jets: The Steelers D vs. the Jets O is a huge mismatch. (I just heard Troy Polamalu will likely miss the game. I might change my pick before Sunday.)

New England (Closed) over Green Bay: I’ll take the Pats wherever they set it. They are destroying fools.

Chicago (Closed) over Minnesota: Same deal without the destroying fools part.

We all have our favorites. And we all love seeing those favorites have success, particularly when we’re on the bandwagon before the explosion. That’s how I feel with the NBA. I’ve always been and always remained a fan. I suffered through hearing people dog the league and criticize the players. While some of it was justified, I thought comments I constantly heard like ‘College players try harder’, had an underlying meaning.

Recently pro basketball has returned to prominence. The “And 1″ era is over and fans gravitated to the Celtics-Lakers Finals and were captivated by LeBron’s free agency and now the Heat. The only thing that was missing was the biggest market on planet Earth. New York is missing no more.

I love this game and I couldn’t be more proud.

The only difference between yesterday’s game with the Dolphins (the worst game ever played) and the games against Cleveland, Detroit, Houston and Denver is that the Jets didn’t pull off a last minute win. At this point (it’s been two months since they’ve played well), the Jets have proven to be mediocre.

They have no pass rush. Their coach has finally been questioned a bit. The running game and whoever was wearing LaDainian Tomlinson’s uniform earlier this year have disappeared. And I’m still not sure Mark Sanchez will ever be good.

They will likely still make the playoffs. But that’s a formality. They’re finished.*

Last night was the second time in a week I’ve enjoyed a hearty laugh as a team was absolutely brutalized. Last week I couldn’t help but laugh as LeBron went into Cleveland, heard the boos and destroyed his former mates. Last night I had the same reaction seeing the tough talking New York Jets pulverized in Foxboro.

I’m fairly sure many people shared my sentiments. It’s not that I root against the Jets or anything, it’s just that when a team carries on like they do with a coach who acts like a pro wrestler, there’s something funny about seeing them embarrassed on national TV. And what made it even funnier was how Rex Ryan responded.

After the game he acted completely defensive and kept repeateding how he’d take them on again right away (I’m not sure why he’d want to do that). It sounded like some sort of insecure crutch. He coached a desperate game before the situation turned desperate and now will have to face the music.

He’ll be asked about the team’s 1-3 record against above .500 teams (they combined for just 12 points in the three losses), he’ll be asked if the narrow wins over mediocre competition were a mirage (the rest of their opponents are 28-65), he’ll be asked about Mark Sanchez’ poor completion percentage (below just Derek Anderson and Jimmy Clausen) and he’ll be asked how fans can expect his team to win upcoming games in Pittsburgh and Chicago.

The only way he can answer is to get his team to play like they want to back up what he said after the game. Because last night, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady basically tossed Rex Ryan into the corner and punched him in the face repeatedly as the crowd counted along to ten.

The Knicks continue to win and Amar’e continues to dominate. Now the question has become whether to gut the team in order to trade for Carmelo Anthony (Melo has reportedly indicated New York is the only place he would sign an extension). Part of me is worried about how he would fit. Part of me wonders whether the combination of Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari is more productive than Anthony alone. After all, Carmelo is a bit of a volume shooter and potential ball stopper.

However, those parts of me are outweighed by the part of me that has seen the difference Amar’e has made. Adding Melo to that mix immediately vaults the Knicks just a notch below Boston and Miami. Stoudemire, Felton and Anthony would be deadly to guard and Carmelo could even play some stretch four in D’Antoni’s system (as long as they find someone to protect the paint). The bigger issue is how much to give up. The Knicks have all the leverage in this situation. They should be able to keep most of their newfound core.*

We’ll always be able to pinpoint the moment it happened. The second Amar’e Stoudemire placed an orange and blue cap atop his head and uttered these words…”The Knicks are back”, the laughing stock New York basketball had become was no more.

It’s remarkable when you think about it. The number one market in the country’s professional hoops team was a disaster for a decade. A decade! I’m not going to go crazy and say the Knicks winning 11 of 12 (admittedly against weak competition) has vaulted them amongst the elite, still, there used to be no such thing as a game the team should win. This year, they’re regularly disposing of the bottom feeders.

A bunch of this credit must go to Stoudemire. The guy was willing to accept the burden (and the giant contract ) of bringing Madison Square Garden back to relevance and thus far, he has more than answered the bell. He’s playing not just like an All Star but like an MVP. To think, many people believed he was simply a consolation prize, a creation of Steve Nash, an equal to David Lee. To quote my man Jay-Z, “Pardon me, I had to laugh at that.”

No matter what happens going forward, one thing is clear. The Knicks are no longer a joke and with young, cheap assets, they are in position to be a true contender sooner rather than later. Next up…Denver, Boston (won eight straight) and Miami (won six straight, all by double digits)…a true Heat check *rim shot*.

Carolina (+8) over Atlanta: This will surely be wrong but it seems like a bunch of points to give a division opponent at home, plus, everyone is in love with the Falcons right now. That never works out well.

Cincinnati (+8.5) over Pittsburgh: Same thing (though I like the Steelers chances in the playoffs more than Atlanta’s).

Cleveland (+1) over Buffalo: The Browns are the better team.

Green Bay (-7) over Detroit: Should be the same deal as the first two games, not as many points though.

New York Giants (-3) over Minnesota: The Giants very well could end Brett Favre.

Jacksonville (-4) over Oakland: Jaguars have proven solid and this one’s important to them.

Washington (+2.5) over Tampa: I don’t think the Bucs are good enough to make them road favorites.

Seattle (+5.5) over San Francisco: I hate the NFC West.

New Orleans (-9.5) over St. Louis: Ditto.

Denver (-4.5) over Arizona: Trend starting.

San Diego (Closed) over Kansas City: I’m assuming they are waiting on Matt Cassel’s status to set a line. I’m also assuming he won’t play. I’ll take the Chargers whatever it’s set at.

Miami (+5.5) over New York Jets: I have zero confidence in the Jets right now. Not saying they won’t win, just no reason to believe they’ll win handily.

New England (-3) over Chicago: The Patriots are good and Jay Cutler versus Bill Belichick is a mismatch.

Philadelphia (-4) over Dallas: The Cowboys D can’t slow down the Eagles O.

Baltimore (-3) over Houston: The Texans mediocrity disgusts me.

Two major cogs essential to film (I like writing film because it makes me sound like a pretentious movie critic) are the catalysts for this tension. One, is of course, the performances. Natalie Portman is quite good in the lead role conveying the character’s overwhelming weakness, a key trait in the plot’s structure. The rest of the cast follows suit. Barbara Hershey is excellent as her overbearing mother (the source of that weakness), Vincent Cassel is forceful and charismatic as her instructor and Mila Kunis eats up the bad girl part; therefore making her the most attractive female in the movie. The other driving force behind the constantly building tension is the score, featuring haunting piano strikes that still won’t leave me alone.

Much like “The Wrestler”, Aronofsky’s previous film (again), the main character is consumed by the dark nature of her profession (in case you didn’t know, it’s about ballerinas) and a deep rooted internal sadness. However, this time, as the key points unfold, you are left wondering what is actually taking place. Where Rourke’s Ram-Jam struggled with having to cut meat at the local grocery, Portman’s Nina struggles with something far more insidious, something inside her own head.

When the film reached its conclusion (when the movie was over), I stared blankly at the credits screen and was unsure what to say to my friends next to me. I think that’s a good thing.

(Next up for Aronofsky is “The Wolverine”. They are distancing themselves from that crapfest posing as a Wolverine movie from a few years back and focusing on the classic Frank Miller arc with Logan in Japan. It has the potential to be the greatest thing of all time. Aronofsky better not pick now to make his first bad movie, er, film.)

I was just as into the hype around the Cleveland fan reaction as everyone else. I wish TNT had a longer pregame show so we could have seen and heard the boos LeBron James was serenaded with during shootaround. I laughed at many of the signs and appreciated the atmosphere. But let’s be honest, LeBron matters way more than the Cavaliers do. In the scheme of things and historically, the event unfolded properly.

LeBron set another Cavs record (most points scored in a quarter at Quicken Loans Arena), this time as a visitor. He embarrassed his former team. The blank, hapless stares of many fans in the third quarter said it all. This turned out to LeBron’s night, not theirs.

The most ironic aspect of the whole ordeal is that this could be the moment everything came together for the Miami Heat. I’m not going to oversell beating the Cavs. Still, they marched into hostile territory united and played far better together than they have all season. I’d be fairly surprised if this wasn’t a sign of things to come.

There is a small part of me that feels bad for the Cleveland fans. But its time for them to move on. They had seven years of what they witnessed (pun seriously intended) last night and saw LeBron lead the team he smashed to 66 and 61 wins in consecutive seasons. Did it work out perfectly for them? Of course not. It is what it is.

I’ve never rooted for anything harder than I did for LeBron to come to the Knicks. It didn’t happen. I was upset. I’m past it. I was rooting for him yesterday and was laughing as he put his stamp on this chapter of his career arc. The result of that game was as it should’ve been.

Should I go into my old arena and absolutely destroy my former team? What should I do?

*Tosses powder in the air*

Eagles (-8.5) over Texans: I’m not sure there is a limit to how many points the Eagles might put up tonight.

Buffalo (+5.5) over Minnesota: I suppose the Bills are playing fairly well.

Detroit (+3.5) over Chicago: This feels like a Jay Cutler interception game the week after they’ve been annointed.

Cleveland (+4.5) over Miami: *Looks into crystal ball* I see this being decided by a field goal.

Denver (+9.5) over Kansas City: This just seems like too many points.

Jacksonville (Even) over Tennessee: No matter what, the Jaguars have a huge QB advantage.

New Orleans (-7) over Cincinnati: The Bengals are terrible. They need a new quarterback asap.

San Francisco (9.5) over Green Bay: Again, too many points (I’m probably wrong).

Washington (+7) over New York Giants: Giants injuries allow Donovan McNabb to keep this close.

San Diego (-13) over Oakland: I went with the Raiders two weeks in a row. Not again.

Tampa (+3) over Atlanta: Divison upset.

Seattle (-6) over Carolina: I hate this game.

Indianapolis (-5.5) over Dallas: The Colts are fighting for their playoff lives.

St. Louis (-3.5) over Arizona: Um, the Cardinals are awful.

Pittsburgh (+3) over Baltimore: I think the Steelers are better. I think.

New England (-3.5) over New York Jets: The Jets haven’t demonstrated an ability to rush the passer. That could be a problem against Tom Brady.

–We’ll start with the biggest return of the week. LeBron James hit the city of Cleveland with a chair and now they have their chance at revenge. I get why people don’t like LeBron, what I don’t get is why they pretend they feel so bad for Cleveland fans (do they really?). Cavs fans have every right to say and act as they choose (within reason) and the chant sheet they are handing out is absolutely hilarious. That doesn’t change the fact that LeBron was far and away the greatest player in their franchise’s history and made them relevant and competitive for seven years. He wants the team to retire his jersey. They should. Besides, it would be the first charred jersey to hang from the rafters. On another note, Bron haters must be salivating. The way the Heat have been playing, the Cavs have a real chance to embarrass them Thursday night.

–The Spurs have returned to the top of the NBA. I don’t believe they can beat the Lakers (who have dropped three straight) but Timmy, Manu and Tony (nice work with Eva pal, real slick) may have one more go at it.

–The Knicks have returned to an above .500 perch. They are off to their best 19 game start since 2001-2002 (really), Amar’e Stoudemire is playing at a first-team All NBA level and Raymond Felton is looking like he has a shot at being an All Star. They’ve proved they’re better than the bad teams. Next up is becoming a good team.

–Tom Brady’s hair has returned as a talking point. He still looks ridiculous with the locks flowing out of his helmet during the game but I’m starting to come around on the look postgame. It’s almost more rugged than it is pretty boy at this point. My biggest problem with the story is the Gisele factor. Brady reportedly was spotted outside a hair transplant facility and his new style may be a cover up for a receding hair line. Apparently this is at the urging of his wife who believes they must maintain the perfect couple look. Tom Brady should not allow himself to be whipped like this. He’s one of, if not the, greatest quarterbacks of all time. I don’t think Ms. Bundchen can say the same about her place amongst the best looking women of all time. She’s not even in my top 1,000.

–Kanye West returned to the top of the charts, deservedly so. It’s particularly impressive considering the backlash after the Taylor Swift incident and because he has no current radio singles.

–Jay-Z returned to the win column (I guess he never left). He can now add best selling author to his list of accolades. Not many people have been a noted crack dealer, rapper, music icon, business tycoon and author in the same lifetime. To quote him, “Haters really gon’ be mad at my next deal.”

–Holiday movies have returned to television. My pick for best holiday flick goes to “Elf”, a complex and multi-layered tale of a human raised as an elf learning how to function in society. Will Ferrell turns in an Oscar worthy performance as Buddy and hearts are warmed along the way.

–I think Eli may have surpassed Peyton as the Manning more likely to be seen in postseason games from here on out.

–The Bears defense is fairly ferocious. Julius Peppers shows what kind of a difference a dominant pass rusher can make (peep the Panthers record). Expect Michael Vick and the Eagles to get back on track with an obliteration of the Texans Thursday.

–I get that people like Andre Johnson. That doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be suspended for throwing punches. Though, like most athlete fights, those hardly qualify as punches.

–I’m tired of football coaches and announcers comparing positional battles and big games to boxing. It’s not like football isn’t a physical sport. You don’t have to say, ‘This is like a heavyweight weight.’ No, it’s not. It’s like a football game.

–Bills wide receiver Steve Johnson blamed God (on twitter) for him dropping a wide open touchdown. I applaud him. If God is credited for game winning touchdown catches, should he not also be blamed for horrific drops?

–Are you ready for some hype? The Jets-Patriots SUPER DUPER PRE GAME BONANZA BEGINS NOW!

–*LeBron mental note: Wow. I can’t believe we suck this bad*
Something needs to give with Dwyane Wade and LeBron James. The Miami Heat offense is gross when the two of them are on the floor together. Wade has strung together some of the worst performances of his career and LeBron, despite solid production, does not look like the same player. The people who thought they were too ball dominant to play together are smiling right now. Meanwhile, the people who saw them excel in the Olympics and thought they would make the necessary adjustments to replicate that in the NBA (me) are befuddled. I still believe they’ll get it together. If they don’t, the first change will be at coach and then an unthinkable topic may eventually be broached…trading one of the two of them.

–Moving to a guy who doesn’t need the ball; Knicks rookie Landry Fields. He is the definition of solid and is the third best rookie in the league behind Blake Griffin (the soul taker) and John Wall. He’s got good size (6′7), surprising athleticism (40 inch vertical) and simply does everything well.

–Floyd Mayweather was charged with assault again. At this point he’s assaulting everyone but Manny Pacquiao.

–For the love of Ray J! Kim Kardashian gets around. She’s now reportedly dating Nets forward Kris Humphries (of all people). He’s already singlehandedly exceeded the team’s win total from last season.

–Poor Willie Nelson was arrested for pot. Insert “That’s like…” joke here.

–The dumb comedy (which is an oxymoron, since you have to be smart to be funny) is my favorite film genre. Leslie Nielsen predates my generation a bit but I fondly remember the Naked Gun movies as some of the first comedies I enjoyed as a wee lad.