This was fun to watch live.

I see a rematch brewing (3-1 last week, 6-2 for the playoffs, 134-121-7 on the season)…

Giants (+2.5) over 49ers: If you read my post a couple entries below, you’d know who I’m taking in this game. The 49ers are an excellent team all around. They went 13-3, weren’t blown out all season and beat the Saints in the playoffs; that speaks for itself. However, the Giants are playing like a borderline dominant team right now. They’ve taken four consecutive must-win games by a combined score of 121-50. They dominated the 15-1 Packers and their historic passing attack. I’m just not sure what San Francisco does better at the moment (other than have the edge in the kicking game). As good as the Niners defense is, they narrowly defeated New Orleans despite getting five turnovers and Drew Brees still managed to throw for 462 yards and four scores. I think the Giants are the better team.

Patriots (-7.5) over Ravens: Much like New York, I believe New England has improved as the season has gone along, particularly on the defensive side. Meanwhile, the Ravens have a stout D but I don’t think its a special one. And then there’s the Tom Brady-Joe Flacco matchup.

I frankly cannot believe the level the New York Giants are currently playing at. It was just several weeks ago when I thought they weren’t of much greater quality than the Washington Redskins. Then they lost to the Redskins (for the second time this season). That was the end of the slightly above average Giants team.

Something happened after that game. Actually, many things happened. It would be too convenient to attach one reason for such a drastic improvement. In the Helen Keller movie I watched in school, Helen was having trouble learning due to her handicaps and her teachers were growing frustrated. Until her instructor signed water into Helen’s palm while holding her hand under a pump. I think it would be too simplistic to define one such breakthrough moment for this Giants team.

This was a group that was dead-last in rushing offense, 27th in total defense and 25th in scoring defense. Simply put, they weren’t very good. However, those statistics are no longer relevant. Through some combination of playing the Packers tough in the regular season, getting healthy at the right time (perhaps the most important detail), winning the much hyped New York bowl (probably the singular psychological factor I would point to), beating Dallas in an elimination game and steam-rolling through the Falcons, the Giants became a beast of a squad.

The Packers were 15-1 and didn’t belong on the field with them. Aaron Rodgers and a historically great passing attack got crushed despite having an incredibly favorable call go their way. They were inferior. Just like every other team might be.

The San Francisco 49ers have a great defense but the Giants D is playing at an elite level right now. After all, they held Atlanta and Green Bay to a combined 22 points. And with the way Eli Manning is playing and the weapons he has on the outside, their offense can go toe-to-toe with anybody.

As a team, they believe if they play their game, they can’t lose. I’m not sure they will. The only team I’m uncertain they are better than is New England. I think that’s where we’re headed; a rematch of one of the more memorable Super Bowls ever.

Tebow, Tebow, Tebow. Just trying to meet my quota (131-120-7 on the season)…

49ers (+4) over Saints: We are enamored with the Saints because we just saw them dust Detroit. But the Lions were allergic to tackling, San Fran isn’t. The Lions also dropped some sure interceptions, San Fran won’t. New Orleans is virtually unbeatable in their dome but outside of it, they’ve lost games to the Rams and Bucs. The 49ers are built for this and as long as they don’t turn the ball over, I like them to win outright.

Broncos (+13.5) over Patriots: I refuse to doubt Tebow anymore. And Denver was good enough to build an early lead last time these two played. If they are aggressive, they’ve got a shot. However, the Patriots have shown they could care less about playing from behind (49 straight against Buffalo a few weeks ago). I’ll take the Pats by ten.

Texans (+7.5) over Ravens: The only major advantage Baltimore has is at quarterback and Joe Flacco’s performance this year has been questionable at best.

Giants (+7.5) over Packers: Perhaps my judgment is clouded having just seen the Giants, while Green Bay is more out of sight, out of mind. But there was a time when the G-Men could not run the ball and were terrible on defense. That time has passed. I actually believe they are the more well rounded team. Will that be enough to topple Aaron Rodgers and Pack’s historically great passing attack? I’ll say yes for the heck of it.

If you haven’t seen Ricky Rubio play yet, you need to.

I’ve yet to pick a playoff game wrong (7-9 last week; 128-119-7 on the season)…

Texans (-3) over Bengals: Houston defends and runs the ball better than Cincy does anything. I won’t give the Bengals rookie quarterback a big enough advantage to go with them.

Saints (-10 1/2) over Lions: New Orleans has won its last eight and by an average of 17 points. Plus, Detroit got torn up by Matt Flynn last week. I’ll roll with Drew Brees and company.

Steelers (-8 1/2) over Broncos: I don’t have complete faith in Pittsburgh’s offense considering the health of Ben Roethlisberger. But I have 100% faith in their defense going against Tim Tebow and the Denver offense. You can’t give a consistently dominant defense that allowed only 14 points per game just one dimension to focus on. The Steelers defense is going to treat Tebow and the Broncos offense like a killer whale does a baby seal or like the Incredible Hulk does purple pants.

Giants (+3) over Falcons: If I could pass on any game, it’d be this one. I’m not sure about the G-Men. Are they getting healthy and everything is clicking for them at the right time? Or did they simply beat a Jets team in disarray and a Cowboys team that lost four of five (with the lone win coming against the Bucs)? Are they still the team that lost to the Redskins three weeks ago? If they beat Atlanta (who I’m not really sold on either but are certainly solid), they can count me as a believer.

Boris Diaw is the latest player to benefit from the world’s best basketball improvement technique. (Originally aired on ESPNNewYork1050)

It would take an epic failure in order for me not to finish with a winning record (8-8 last week; 121-110-7 on the season)…

Bills (+10.5) over Patriots: Something tells me N.E. goes into cruise control.

Saints (-8) over Panthers: I’d pick Cam and company on a neutral field given the points but New Orleans has been a monster at home.

Vikings (-1.5) over Bears: Joe Webb > Caleb Hannie?

Packers (+3) over Lions: Meaningless or not, it’s rare when the pack get points.

Colts (+3.5) over Jaguars: Indy is rolling now.

Dolphins (-3) over Jets: Not sure they aren’t just better. (Reggie Bush’s injury changes things but I’ll stick with the choice for the heck of it.)

49ers (-10.5) over Rams: Know they are better.

Titans (-3) over Texans: Playing for their playoff lives.

Bengals (+2.5): Same deal but in their own building.

Eagles (-8.5) over Redskins: Just because.

Broncos (-3) over Chiefs: Only because it’s in Mile High.

Steelers (-6.5) over Browns: I can’t remember if I’ve ever picked Cleveland.

Chargers (+3) over Raiders: San Diego spoils their playoff hopes.

Seahawks (+2.5) over Cardinals: No reason.

Falcons (-11) over Bucs: Tampa es no bueno.

Giants (-3) over Cowboys: I trust New York more, just slightly though.

This sports weekend is spectacular. Happy holidays everybody! (10-6 last week; 113-102-7 on the season)…

Colts (+7.5) over Texans: I deserve to lose this one. (I didn’t.)

Cardinals (+4.5) over Bengals: I think Arizona is just as good as Cincy at this point.

Ravens (-12.5) over Browns: Bounce back game for Baltimore.

Broncos (-3) over Bills: Buffalo is terrible and can’t stop the run.

Titans (-7) over Jaguars: Simply because they are at home.

Dolphins (+9.5) over Patriots: Miami deserves some respect for how they’ve been playing and the Pats have wrapped up the division.

Redskins (-6.5) over Vikings: In Grossman I trust.

Jets (-3) over Giants: The Giants are 7-7, have been outscored on the season and rank 28th in points allowed. Eli Manning is better than Mark Sanchez, everywhere else I think the Jets have a slight edge.

Chiefs (-2.5) over Raiders: Carson Palmer will throw some picks at Arrowhead.

Steelers (-11.5) over Rams: I don’t care who the quarterback is.

Panthers (-7.5) over Bucs: Tampa sucks.

Chargers (+2.5) over Lions: San Diego has their December super powers working again.

Eagles (+1.5) over Cowboys: If Philly has something to play for, they’ll dust Dallas.

Seahawks (+2.5) over 49ers: Seattle has been playing well, is at home and San Fran played Monday night.

Packers (-12) over Bears: Caleb Hannie.

Saints (-7) over Falcons: New Orleans seems unbeatable in the Superdome.

I just left the newly renovated Madison Square Garden following the Knicks and Nets second preseason meeting, my first taste of live basketball this season (yeah, I know it doesn’t really count). Despite the ugly nature of that particular game, I’m currently experiencing a state of antsy euphoria knowing the actual season is only a few days away and will gladly ignore a little post lockout sloppy play.

I feel like a kid fresh off a month-long grounding. There are simply too many stories to delve into come Christmas day. I’ll start with the two teams I just saw.

–Tyson Chandler is clearly going to have a significant impact on the Knicks. He is big, coordinated, active and athletic. He should improve their defense, keep attention away from Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire offensively and clean up the boards to limit teams to one shot (a huge problem for New York last year). His positive attitude also seems to be contagious.

With that said, their backcourt is currently a travesty. They’ve got absolutely no one who can break down a defense off the dribble. It’s probably not a good thing when Toney Douglas is the best guard on your team. Maybe Chandler’s positive energy can help heal Baron Davis’ back.

Another story to watch is the dynamic between Anthony and Mike D’Antoni. D’Antoni, considered an offensive guru, is coaching for his job. Meanwhile, Carmelo is attempting to justify his star status. Melo is a savant as a scorer but he’s never really made his teammates dramatically better like other top players (he’s been eliminated in the first round in seven of his eight playoff appearances–in an average of 4.7 games). D’Antoni promises to run the offense through him. Can they help each other get better? Will this be the year Carmelo becomes a true superstar?

–The Nets are currently Deron Williams and a bunch of scrubs. Brook Lopez is far and away their second best player and their third best player isn’t even known for basketball (the Garden crowd booed Kris Humphries vociferously, as if they were defending Kim Kardashian’s honor). *Brook Lopez’ injury was revealed after I wrote this and could make number two below the more likely outcome.*

No team has more at stake this year. It really is all or nothing for the Nets. Think about the two possible outcomes for them.

1. They acquire Dwight Howard. Then they would be heading to Brooklyn with two stars, an intriguing Russian billionaire owner, a mega star minority owner and a team capable of competing for years to come. They would actually matter and a fun rivalry would develop with the Knicks for the first time in New York basketball history.

2. They don’t acquire Dwight Howard. They continue to stink. They lose Deron Williams and move to Brooklyn with nothing. They remain irrelevant.

–Speaking of intra-city rivalries…how about the Clippers and Lakers seeming like legit competitors for the first time ever? The Lakers still have Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum making them ever dangerous. But Kobe is older (and hurt) and the team overall is slow. Plus, Josh McRoberts is their fourth best player. Meanwhile, the Clips now feature Chris Paul lobs to Blake Griffin, otherwise known as basketball pornography. Toss in the soap opera that was David Stern determining CP3’s trade destination and you have compelling theater. Jack Nicholson should just stay in his seat at all times.

–Then there’s that team in Miami. Will their chemistry continue to grow with experience or will they ultimately prove that simply assembling talent doesn’t guarantee results, even if you have the two best players in the world on the same team? (Or does it just prove that three great players need more than complete bums for a supporting cast?)

I’ll bet on them. And yes, I’ll still bet on LeBron James (even in the Finals). Give me Heat over Thunder in June.

I could care less about my record last week. I was up six points in fantasy going into the Sunday night game with DeMarco Murray going up against Victor Cruz. Murray’s ankle injury cost me my season. Thanks a lot DeMarco. Also, I wish you a speedy recovery and great success in the future, I don’t hold grudges (7-9 last week; 103-96-7 on the season)…

Falcons (-11 1/2) over Jaguars: I picked this. Trust me.

Bucs (+7) over Cowboys: Dallas hasn’t been impressive in weeks.

Redskins (+6 1/2) over Giants: Washington is actually playing well. G-Men by a field goal.

Eagles (-3) over Jets: With absolutely zero confidence. Jets offense shouldn’t be able to keep up with Philly but their physicality should be way too much for the Iggles to handle. I’ll just ride Philadelphia until they are mathematically eliminated.

Packers (-13 1/2) over Chiefs: Um, Kansas City was not impressive last week.

Saints (-6 1/2) over Vikings: New Orleans is better than Minnesota.

Seahawks (+3 1/2) over Bears: Seattle is better as currently constituted.

Dolphins (- 1 1/2) over Bills: The wheels have fallen off Buffalo’s wagon.

Texans (-6 1/2) over Panthers: That defense has been ballin’.

Titans (-6 1/2) over Colts: Indy hasn’t balled all year.

Bengals (-6 1/2) over Rams: One team is playing for its playoff life, the other sucks.

Raiders (+1) over Lions: At home.

Patriots (-6 1/2) over Broncos: Denver’s D and toughness on offense should actually make this close but I’m taking Belichick and Brady over the force of Tebow.

Cardinals (-7) over Browns: Arizona is kind of ok.

Chargers (+2 1/2) over Ravens: Say what you want about Norv Turner, he seems to have magical coaching powers in December.

49ers (-2 1/2) over Steelers: I’ll take that San Fran defense in their own building.

Chris Paul wants to be a Knick. At least according to I’ve everything I’ve seen, read and common sense. And if that’s what he truly wants, he can make it happen. I’m here to make the case that it should happen before the start of the season.

Look, the Knicks don’t have much to offer New Orleans. Pretending they can put together an even deal is laughable. New York shouldn’t pretend otherwise. However, they do have one thing they can offer the Hornets; the chance to be terrible. Right now. Not in a year. Not later in the season. Immediately. From the opening tip.

Now you might ask, why would the Hornets want to be terrible? Because being terrible is preferable to being mediocre. The worst thing an NBA team can be is mediocre. No chance at a championship, no chance at high draft picks. Other teams with more valuable trade pieces than the Knicks are offering the Hornets the chance to be just that.

Think about some of the possibilities. There’s no way the Hornets will get a player in return that can replace a true superstar, in my opinion the best point guard in the league. They can only hope not to be embarrassed by what they get in return. Take the rumored Rajon Rondo deal. Rondo is an excellent player but his talents have been maximized playing alongside three future Hall of Famers. Put him on New Orleans and you have a really good player with a bunch of average ones, equalling…you guessed it, mediocre. Or how about the other rumored suitor, the Clippers? They could offer a package built around say Eric Gordon, a very good young player. He and some filler might make N.O. slightly above awful. Not exactly a recipe for success. (Remember, any draft picks they’d get from these teams would wind up being late, especially after those teams added CP3.)

By trading Chris Paul to the Knicks, the Hornets give him exactly what he wants without getting much in return. Doesn’t exactly seem fair. But they can’t get a fair deal. Their course of action should be to rebuild and the best way to rebuild is to bottom out and get a bunch of ping pong balls in the next draft (one that happens to be deep because kids stayed in school to avoid the lockout).

Drafting a stud is the only way they can approximate CP3 and they’d only have to suffer one year to do so. Then, their fans would have something to look forward to watching develop, with the draft pick, a couple of young complementary pieces acquired in the deal and a roster devoid of bad contracts (which the Knicks would take on).

By making this trade, by swallowing pride and agreeing to be terrible right away, their front office would have a shot at a do-over, a chance to succeed where they failed with Paul.

Got some breathing room last week (10-5-1 last week; 87-80-7 on the season)…

Eagles (-3) over Seahawks: Don’t know why I’m picking the Iggles again.

Falcons (-3) over Texans: I didn’t know who TJ Yates was until last week.

Titans (+3) over Bills: Better team getting points?

Bears (-7) over Chiefs: Tyler Palko=Caleb Hanie, Rest of Bears > Rest of Chiefs.

Dolphins (-3) over Raiders: Miami’s corners will pick Carson Palmer once or twice.

Steelers (-7) over Bengals: With no confidence.

Jets (-3) over Redskins: Don’t have much confidence in Jets either.

Panthers (+3) over Bucs: I guess.

Broncos (+1) over Vikings: Vikes can stop the run but I’m not will in to bet against the end of Tim Tebow’s run yet.

Ravens (-7) over Browns: Watch Baltimore not show up.

Rams (+14) over 49ers: Too many?

Cardinals (+4 1/2) over Cowboys: Dallas has been playing squeakers.

Packers (-7) over Giants: Can’t go the other way after seeing what the Saints did to Big Blue’s D on Monday.

Saints (-7) over Lions: I’m ready to stomp on Detroit’s season.

Jaguars (+3) over Chargers: Whoever is coaching Jacksonville has got to be better than Norv Turner.

Patriots (-21) over Colts: Yep.

It’s over. I can’t believe it’s finally over. The NBA lockout has ended (tentatively) and my life has gotten somewhere between 49 and 51% better.

In the aftermath I’m sure some will analyze who won the deal. Others may wonder whether there will be any lingering negative effects or anger amongst the fanbase. Me? I say who cares. Basketball is back and that’s all that matters. I can immediately forget about all the other nonsense.

No more talk of BRI’s or system issues or escrow or luxury taxes or disclaiming unions and anti-trust suits. And to make it even better, with the NFL lockout in the rearview and MLB’s labor situation quietly resolved, we won’t have to deal with the word lockout and the surrounding babble that goes with it for the better part of a decade.

Now we can turn our attention to less boring and frustrating things. Like say…the Miami Heat act two, the last stand for Kobe’s Lakers and the Boston Celtics, the first promising Knicks season in years, the continued emergence of young stars like Kevin Durant and Derrick Rose, endless rumors surrounding Dwight Howard, Deron Williams and Chris Paul and whether his short time with Kim Kardashian will vault Kris Humphries to superstar status.

Because, as it turns out, Nuclear winters are no match for Christmas miracles.

(And since many on the internet seem impervious to sarcasm, I was kidding about the Kris Humphries one.)

Happy Thanksgiving everybody! (6-7-1 last week; 77-75-6 on the season)…

Packers (-7) over Lions: Green Bay has been a fairly safe pick thus far this year.

Dolphins (+7) over Dallas: Miami has outscored opponents 86-20 in the last three weeks.

Ravens (-3) over 49ers: San Francisco is really good but if there is a game for Alex Smith to have a retro performance, it’ll be on the road in Baltimore.

Jets (-8) over Bills: Buffalo stinks and Rex Ryan’s defense owns Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Cardinals (+3) over Rams: Arizona is better. Maybe.

Panthers (-3.5) over Colts: Keeping with the don’t pick the Colts no matter what rule.

Browns (+8.5) over Bengals: Cincy likely wins but I’m not sure they crush them.

Texans (-3.5) over Jaguars: A Matt Leinart led Houston offense is still vastly superior to Jacksonville’s.

Falcons (-9.5) over Vikings: Atlanta is great at home and the Vikings are no good. They should be even more no good without Adrian Peterson.

Titans (-3.5) over Bucs: No reason.

Bears (+4.5) over Raiders: Jay Cutler was playing very well but the Chicago defense, running game and special teams are still good enough for them not to fall apart.

Seahawks (-4) over Redskins: I will not be watching this game.

Broncos (+6.5) over Chargers: Can’t give Tebow that many points, can you?

Steelers (-10.5) over Chiefs: Tyler Palko, meet the Steelers defense.

Eagles (+3) over Patriots: Philly is going to make the rest of this season interesting.

Saints (-7) over Giants: Bad matchup for G-Men.

Doh ! (6-9 last week; 71-68-5 on the season)…

Jets (-7) over Broncos: Actually not that confident in this pick but Jets need this one.

Dolphins (-1.5) over Bills: I know longer believe in Buffalo and Miami has looked upper tier mediocre recently.

Panthers (+7) over Lions: Don’t know why.

Ravens (-7) over Bengals: Baltimore is hard to predict but they seem to play well against good teams.

Cowboys (-8) over Redskins: Washington might currently be the worst team in the league.

Jaguars (Even) over Browns: I think I believe Jacksonville is slightly better.

Raiders (-1) over Vikings: Um, Minnesota is not very good.

Packers (-14) over Bucs: Um, the Packers are.

Cardinals (+10) over 49ers: Seems like too many points.

Rams (-1) over Seahawks: In a battle of two bad teams, I’ll take the one at home.

Bears (-4) over Chargers: Chicago is for real.

Falcons (-6) over Titans: Atlanta is so much better at home than on the road.

Eagles (+4.5) over Giants: Last chance Philly.

Patriots (-15) over Chiefs: I believe the first team in this matchup says Patriots and the second one says Chiefs.

Sometimes when you back someone into a corner, they fight back. That’s the situation we have now in the NBA.

The players feel like their backs are against the wall and the only prudent thing to do is stand up to their perceived assailant; Commissioner David Stern and a group of hardline owners. I vehemently disagree with this tactic but I totally understand it.

By issuing a take it or leave it ultimatum, the league played off of all the wrong aspects of its players (some of the more competitive people on the planet). I suspect this negotiating strategy was meant to break the union and pressure them into taking a deal they deemed unfavorable. Instead, it played to their emotions and caused them to stand up for what they believe in, even if the battle they are waging is a futile one.

Stern appears confident he will prevail and he probably will, in the literal sense of this particular situation. (As a side note, he has a lot of nerve insinuating the players failed to negotiate in good faith when they made economic concessions worth well north of $3 billion.) Where he will not win is in representing his product, the National Basketball Association. It was his job to get the more hawkish owners (the ones who clearly hate the Miami Heat, New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers) to back off. It was his job to massage a situation that was more than two years in the making. It was his job to harness the momentum his league had, not potentially destroy it. It was his job to get a deal done. It was his job to save the season. It looks like he has failed.

This is no longer a battle over money. For the owners, this is about control. For the players, it is about pride. The owners are correct but they aren’t right. The players aren’t correct but they are right. And neither side is relying on logic nor acting rationally in an effort to win this fight. So in the end, we all lose.

I just wish I could make like the players and disclaim my interest.

I know Penn State is the biggest story right now but I’ve talked enough about it on the radio and there’s nothing I can write that I haven’t or hasn’t been said. I’ll sum it up in one word, terrible. And then there’s my unending frustration with the NBA lockout.
At least there’s picks to make (8-6 last week; 65-59-5)…

Raiders (+7.5) over Chargers: I don’t think San Diego is good enough to get this many points against anyone.

Bills (+5.5) over Cowboys: Don’t trust Dallas.

Eagles (7.5) over Cardinals: I’ve been wrong on Philly all year. I’ll give them one more chance.

Chiefs (-3) over Broncos: I’ll take Kansas City at home.

Texans (-3.5) over Bucs: I’ve got a gut feeling Tampa takes this but logic and numbers say Houston.

Jaguars (-3) over Colts: I vowed never to pick Indy again.

Saints (-1) over Falcons: With no confidence whatsoever.

Steelers (-3.5) over Bengals: Not a Bengals believer yet.

Rams (+3) over Browns: Why not?

Panthers (-3.5) over Titans: Tennessee is very vulnerable through the air.

Dolphins (-4) over Redskins: Miami is favored. That tells you how good Washington is.

Ravens (-7) over Seahawks: Can’t think of a reason to go the other way.

Bears (-3) over Lions: I’ve been impressed with Chicago over the last several weeks.

49ers (-3.5) over Giants: Tough game for G-Men having to go across the country after a huge win to face the best defense in the league.

Jets (-1.5) over Patriots: Jets simply might be the better team.

Vikings (+13.5) over Packers: I’ll say rivalry keeps them within two touchdowns.

Looking to put .500 further in my rearview mirror (5-6-1 last week; 57-53-5)…

Bills (-2) over Jets: Huge game. The Bills are third in points per game, near the top in rushing and first in takeaways. Though the Jets pass coverage may be enough to carry the day.

Patriots (-9) over Giants: I originally took the Giants because that is too many points to give the NFC East leaders but the Giants simply have too many injuries.

Falcons (-7) over Colts: I’m never picking Indy again.

Saints (-8) over Bucs: Bounceback game?

Browns (+11) over Texans: Too many.

Dolphins (+4) over Chiefs: Miami may have lost every game but they’ve been in a bunch of them.

49ers (-3 1/2) over Redskins: I think Washington officially stinks now.

Seahawks (+11 1/2) over Cowboys: Dallas isn’t good enough to be favored by double digits.

Raiders (-8) over Broncos: Denver hasn’t looked so good.

Bengals (+3) over Titans: I don’t know who is better.

Cardinals (-2 1/2) over Rams: Home team?

Packers (-5 1/2) over Chargers: Better team.

Steelers (-3) over Ravens: Revenge.

Eagles (-7 1/2) over Bears: I’m back on the Eagles bandwagon.

I’ve been on the player’s side. I always thought the owners were going not just for the kill but for the fatality, Mortal Kombat style. Check that, not just the fatality but a flawless victory.

However, after Billy Hunter reportedly walked out of the last set of negotiations, the players are out of moves. The only strategy remaining is holding out and possibly missing the season, which would be insane because it wouldn’t make the deal any better. At best, they’d wind up with the same deal…while losing millions upon millions in the process.

It’s like this. Someone tells you they’ll trade you a banana for your Snack Pack. You’d like to keep the Snack Pack but you have no leverage in the negotiations. Your choices are to take the deal you’re not thrilled about now or take it later while also sacrificing a year’s salary. The only reason to choose the latter is pride. The type of pride that can only be labeled as foolish.

It’s time for the player’s to hand over the Snack Pack. They have to know how badly the owners can beat them.

(Of course, I don’t know what I’m talking about when it comes to this stuff, so feel free to ignore everything I just wrote.)

I’d like to put some distance between me and .500 (7-5-1 last week; 52-47-4 on the season)…

Ravens (-13) over Cardinals: Baltimore won’t replicate last week.

Colts (+8.5) over Titans: Too many points. Titans aren’t good.

Jaguars (+10) over Texans: Jags defense is actually playing really well.

Dolphins (+10) over Giants: Giants win, not quite sure it is by more than ten.

Panthers (-3.5) over Vikings: I believe in Killa Cam.

Saints (-14) over Rams: The Rams are the worst team in the league.

Broncos (+3) over Lions: TEBOW!!! I don’t even believe that but I wanted to type it.

Bills (-7) over Redskins: Washington will finish last in the NFC East.

Bengals (-3) over Seahawks: Much lesser of two evils.

Browns (+10) over 49ers: San Francisco is strong on defense, not sure they can run up the score on people.

Patriots (-3) over Steelers: Tom Brady owns Pittsburgh.

Eagles (-3.5) over Cowboys: Philly is playing for its season.

Chiefs (+4) over Chargers: San Diego is overrated.

Last year, the beginning of the NBA season was met with heightened fervor. This was due to the fallout of “The Decision” and the debut of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami. Despite the success of last year’s finals, that anticipation would have been difficult to replicate this year.

Unless, fans thought they weren’t going to get a season at all. We always want what we can’t have. When you were grounded as a child, going outside and playing with your friends felt like the most exciting prospect imaginable. (I suppose that’s the most innocent analogy for being locked out.)

I was as angry as anyone in regards to the NBA’s work stoppage. But with optimism in the air and prospects of a full 82-game season, my anger is morphing into nervousness and measured excitement. And I’m now firmly convinced missing the entire year was a bluff from both sides.

Look, I’m not implying this was orchestrated, that would be ridiculous. But I am saying, what better way to amp up the hype for the Miami Heat act 2, the first full season of Stat and Melo in New York, trade rumors around Dwight Howard and the Mavs attempt to defend their crown, then to have people believe it was not going to happen at all.

I won’t be fully at ease until a deal is reached but I believe again. And to quote Kevin Garnett, ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE!!!

I seem to fluctuate week to week. So this must be my week (5-7-1 last week; 45-42-3 on the season)…

Chargers (-2) over Jets: Maybe if Rex Ryan were coaching the Chargers the spread would be larger.

Bears (-1) over Bucs: I was moderately impressed by Chicago Sunday night.

Panthers (-2 1/2) over Redskins: Cam Newton > John Beck

Browns (-3) over Seahawks: I hope I witness absolutely none of this game.

Titans (-3) over Texans: I hate the Texans, I’m not sure why, but I do.

Broncos (+2) over Dolphins: Tim Tebow > Matt Moore. I’m not sure what that says about Tebow but I am sure about that comparison.

Falcons (+3 1/2) over Lions: I see Detroit around 10-6, they’ve got to start losing at some point.

Raiders (-4 1/2) over Chiefs: I don’t care who their quarterback is.

Steelers (-3 1/2) over Cardinals: Look at the two teams I just typed.

Cowboys (-13) over Rams: I might pick the St. Louis Cardinals before the Rams.

Packers (-9) over Vikings: Bad pun alert…I didn’t have to Ponder this one.

Saints (-14) over Colts: I actually don’t believe this but Indy has burned me all season.

Ravens (-8) over Jaguars: Baltimore is one of the best teams in the league, Jacksonville one of the worst. Makes sense.

Rex Ryan is great for my profession. I can’t ever remember a coach providing more talk fodder. He’s been the gift that keeps on giving. Perhaps the best press conference performer of all time.

And while I’ve wondered whether he was approaching the clown line at times, I’ve always defended him. The results were there. Yes, he guaranteed Super Bowls and didn’t win them but he has coached the Jets for two years and they’ve appeared in two AFC Championship games. He may not have delivered on his ‘promises’ but he delivered the goods. I believe there is an old saying about only talking if you can back it up. To me, that’s backing it up, particularly when you bounce Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the 14-2 Patriots in the process.

However, the Jets success never stopped the ubiquitous question, ‘Does Rex Ryan talk too much?’ While most in the media appeared to be his sycophants, guffawing at his jokes on cue, there were others who were outraged, or at least feigned outrage. And they’ve been waiting for their chance to pounce. A chance they hope is nearing.

We love to build people up and tear them down (see the “South Park” Britney Spears episode) and I’ve always maintained that when Rex fell, he would fall hard. (Insert the bigger they are, the harder they fall joke.) He hasn’t fallen yet but the way his team is playing, coupled with locker room turmoil and his comments regarding Norv Turner and the Chargers, he may be on the ledge. Though, he now has more guaranteed and theoretical rings than any coach in history. So there’s that.

If this is indeed the end of the honeymoon, there’s one image I’ll look back on; Rex calling a timeout to argue the results of a play he already challenged as his team was getting embarrassed by the Ravens. He looked like a man who had lost control.

Now, maybe this will be nothing and he and the Jets will live up to their Super Bowl expectations. But I wouldn’t guarantee it.

Can’t complain (7-5-1 last week; 40-35-2 on the season)…

Buffalo (+3 1/2) over New York Giants: The Bills have scored more points per game than any team but the Packers and Patriots and the lead the league in takeaways. The Giants don’t do anything that good.

Green Bay (-15) over St. Louis: Can’t pick the Rams.

Pittsburgh (-12) over Jacksonville: Seems like a lot but see above and replace Rams with Jaguars.

Philadelphia (-1 1/2) over Washington: Last chance Philly.

Detroit (-4 1/2) over San Francisco: Lions are probably better and at home.

Carolina (+4) over Atlanta: Could see an upset here.

Bengals (-7) over Indianapolis: Every time I pick Indy, I lose.

Baltimore (-7 1/2) over Houston: Ravens are better, they’re significantly better with the Texans sans Andre Johnson.

Oakland (-6 1/2) over Cleveland: I don’t buy the Browns.

New England (-7) over Dallas: Picking Pats pays off most of the time.

Tampa (+4 1/2) over New Orleans: Gut.

Minnesota (+3) over Chicago: Vikings are better than their record.

Miami (+7) over New York Jets: The Jets should win but the Dolphins are a winless team off a bye, expect a good effort.

Anytime there is a failure as epic as missing games a year after one of the most successful seasons in league history, there is a lot of blame to go around. Everyone is somewhat at fault. But if I had to point my index finger directly at one person, it’d be NBA Commissioner David Stern.

It is David Stern’s job to represent the league and the owners. However, it is also his job to present the union with a proposal that they can realistically sell to the players. He did not. It’s a major problem that union heads Billy Hunter and Derek Fisher said they expected to reach this point and thought it was part of the NBA’s strategy. True or not, it’s an even bigger problem that Stern did nothing to change that mindset.

The league’s offer indicates they want to have their cake, eat it too and then have it again. According to reports, the sides would have reached a deal on money, with the players giving back a significant chunk. On top of that, the owners want to overhaul the entire system in their favor.

To me, it’s obvious some of this is in response to the Miami Heat and Carmelo Anthony. Some owners feel the players have too much control (I’d suspect Dan Gilbert and Stan Kroenke are amongst them). I bet they watched LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh celebrate their signing together and Carmelo force his way to New York while toasting to a future union with Chris Paul and thought, have your fun now, we’ll see you during CBA negotiations. And their demand of a pseudo hard cap is a way to seek retribution and put control back in their hands, even if they’ve shown an inability to competently wield it in the past.

The NBA hasn’t lost the casual fan yet, that won’t happen unless they miss a season and that fan forgets the league exists. Instead, they’ve spit in the face of their real fans and harmed the livelihood of their lower tier workers. And for what?

It’s not fair that the owners are asking so much of a giveback from their most important employees. That doesn’t mean it’s not inevitable. What is the players’ leverage? Missing a season? I’m not sure how that benefits anyone (and I would probably cry if it happened).

This is a star-driven league and I believe if this lockout is prolonged, it will be star-driven as well. You see, guys like Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Kevin Garnett feel they’re worth a ton to the league. And they are. They also feel like they can financially withstand missed time. With their income, I’m sure they can. Plus, they’re competitive. They probably want to win this thing on principle.

However, that’s not the best thing for the majority of the players. The role players, the journeymen, the rookies. An average NBA career is around five years. Why would the typical player want to sacrifice the equivalent of 20% of his total earnings in order to fight until the end over the percentage points that would result in an annual pay cut.

The players had been winning the P.R. battle. They’ve managed to perpetuate the stereotype of the greedy owner. But they won’t win the war. If games are missed, fans will lash out at the players, because that’s who they know. The owners are just names to them. The players are the league, good or bad. And if there’s a significant stoppage, fans will lash out at them like they do the guy who makes a huge on court gaffe in a pivotal moment.

The players have already sacrificed hundreds of millions of dollars. They’ll have to sacrifice a little more. And the owners need to relax and throw them a bone. A 51-49 split should be a realistic deal. Owners win (players previously received 57%) but players get to win the last little inch of negotiating and keep their share over 50 percent.

I just hope both sides realize this in time.

Denver (+7) over Tennessee: Seems like too many points.

Minnesota (+4) over Detroit: Home dogs.

New Orleans (-4.5) over Houston: The Texans have the number one ranked defense in the league. That changes this week.

Carolina (-4) over Jacksonville: Killa Cam gets his first W.

Miami (+2.5) over Cleveland: Whatever.

New England (-9) over Buffalo: Going with the Patriots seems to work pretty well.

Philadelphia (-6.5) over New York Giants: Same theory as with Pats and though it seemed the G-Men did a nice job against Michael Vick last season, the Eagles still put up 38 and 27 points against them in two meetings.

San Francisco (+3) over Cincinnati: I hypothesize that the 49ers are better than the Bengals.

Baltimore (-4.5) over St. Louis: I know the Ravens are better than the Rams.

Kansas City (+15.5) over San Diego: Probably a sucker bet.

Oakland (+3.5) over New York Jets: Don’t have enough faith in the Jets offense.

Arizona (-3.5) over Seattle: The Seahawks are not good at scoring points.

Atlanta (+1.5) over Tampa: Flip a coin.

Green Bay (-4) over Chicago: Aaron Rodgers > Jay Cutler.

Pittsburgh (-11.5) over Indianapolis: I went with the Colts two weeks in a row. No more.

Washington (+6.5) over Dallas: Are the Cowboys definitely better than the Redskins?

Washington (-4) over Arizona: The Skins are at home, have a good defense and an improved offense. The Cardinals do not have a good defense.

Baltimore (-7) over Tennessee: The Ravens just crushed the Steelers. The Titans are inferior to the Steelers.

Chicago (+7) over New Orleans: The Bears have to be the most disrespected team in the league. They won 11 games and went to the NFC Championship game last year. Last week they pulverized the Falcons. Yet, they are seven point dogs to a team that may or may not have recorded a single tackle in its opener.

Indianapolis (+2) over Cleveland: Yes, the Colts got crushed. But the Browns lost to the Bengals at home. As long as Kerry Collins doesn’t repeatedly fumble in his own territory, Indy’s got this.

Green Bay (-10.5) over Carolina: A lot of points. Still, I’m really gonna pick the Panthers (apologies to Killa Cam)?

Jacksonville (+9.5) over New York Jets: The Jets will win but they hardly ever win big.

Detroit (-8) over Kansas City: With no confidence whatsoever.

Oakland (+4) over Buffalo: Not sure why.

Pittsburgh (-15) over Seattle: It’s like I’m being dared to take the Seahawks. I’ll call.

Minnesota (-3) over Tampa: Hopefully Donovan McNabb throws for more than 39 yards.

San Francisco (+3.5) over Dallas: Probably wrong.

Denver (-4.5) over Cincinnati: I believe I think that the Broncos are slightly better.

Miami (+3) over Houston: The Dolphins looked solid against New England for three quarters.

New England (-7) over San Diego: Then the Patriots did what they do.

Philadelphia (-3) over Atlanta: Don’t think Vick is losing in his return to hotlanta.

New York Giants (-4.5) over St. Louis: They kinda have to win.

It’s as if people were waiting for his stupidity to be realized. As if they were rooting for it. As if they assumed he was a dim bulb from the start. I wonder why.

I wonder if it’s because he was cast as the villain in the Ohio State mess. He, not Jim Tressel seemed to be the fall guy and may be bearing the brunt of Buckeyes fans ire. I believe the initial erroneous reports originated from the Midwest. Are they looking to see him punished for his alleged wrongdoing (which is totally up to individual interpretation)? I wonder if that’s the only reason.

I wonder if people simply don’t believe he will be good and are looking for evidence to support that. However, I can see saying his skill set will not translate the NFL. I don’t see where assuming he’s a dummy comes into play in this equation.

I wonder if race is a major factor. Some get outraged whenever race is brought up but I do believe there could still be a stigma with black quarterbacks. (The whole Rush Limbaugh-Donovan McNabb controversy was such a big deal for a reason.) Just today on the radio, a caller told us Pryor was like Michael Vick and Jamarcus Russell before him. I’m not sure how that makes any sense since Vick has proven to be successful in the league and since he and Russell are nothing alike. Russell was strong-armed, Vick is strong-armed but Vick also happens to be the most mobile quarterback of all time, Russell was fat and slow and never a scrambler. I also don’t think it can be a total coincidence that the last time a nearly impossibly low Wonderlic score was incorrectly leaked, it involved Vince Young. I wonder if we’ll ever see that happen with a guy like Matt Stafford or Colt McCoy.

I wonder if it says more about the sentiment with running quarterbacks than it does about unintentional racial bias. There seems to be a contingent out there that assumes failure with any QB who is not a traditional pocket passer. Most running quarterbacks are of a particular race but Tim Tebow is currently getting similar treatment. (I’m not saying I believe Tebow is good or not, just that he doesn’t seem to be getting a fair crack.) Yes, accuracy from the pocket is a proven winning formula in the NFL since the advent of the Bill Walsh era. However, Steve Young ran and he won and guys like Randall Cunningham have had great success in the league. Perhaps it’s still too early to judge the newest crop of running quarterbacks, perhaps teams have failed to utilize them effectively the way Andy Reid did Vick last year. (The combined winning percentage of the Eagles top two QB’s–Vick and Young–is over 60% by the way.) I wonder.

I wonder if I’ll continue this stupid I wonder play on words because this type of writing actually deserves a seven on the Wonderlic. It’s almost as if I’m a running quarterback.

However, soon after, Santonio declared that he and his family were excited he wound up in the paper. If he didn’t care how he was perceived, why should I? No harm was done by it. He did nothing wrong.

It’s an example that has caused me to chuckle at other similar and more recent instances. As a member of the media, I get excited when someone says or does something that provides a talking point. I’d imagine most of my brethren feel the same way. (Most of them would probably scoff at someone of my stature referring to them as my brethren first.) Yet, out the other side of the mouth, many condemn athletes for exactly that, call it a mistake and outline how they should’ve handled it. Oftentimes they are outraged while doing so.

Eli Manning said he belongs in the same class as Tom Brady and many clamored that he should’ve held his tongue or evaded the question. Why? So he can appear more boring than he already does? That was just about the most interesting thing he’s ever uttered. And if he believes it, more power to him.

Michael Vick opened up to “GQ”, including about how the general public seemed ignorant regarding the prevalence of the disturbing activity he is now notorious for, amongst other things. He could’ve told them anything about that topic or any other where he could possibly come off in a negative light were off limits. He didn’t and if you read the full article (where he reiterates his wrongdoing), he comes out looking like a fully developed person, not a PR robot.

The media frequently warns athletes against saying or doing the same things it is constantly trying to uncover. Then scolds them as soon as they do. Even if said athlete has done nothing wrong. Even if he’s simply speaking his mind.

Begging for guys to be interesting and proceeding to crush them as soon as they are? That seems just as dumb as anything any athlete has ever said.

(Originally heard on ESPNNY 1050)

Last year Philadelphia may have given Green Bay its toughest game en route to the Super Bowl and that was with the 21st ranked defense. A defense they happened to improve by adding Jason Babin (who had 12 1/2 sacks last year), Cullen Jenkins (to address their porous run defense), Dominique-Rodgers Cromartie (in exchange for their clipboard holder) and of course lockdown corner Nnamdi Asomugha. I’d say their defense will place somewhere higher than 21st this year.

Offensively they still possess as much big play ability as anyone and Vince Young will be good insurance for Michael Vick. I also wouldn’t bet against Andy Reid figuring out a way to use both of them together.

There’s no such thing as putting together a sure thing title team in a sport where injuries and one-game scenarios can change anything but I don’t think many people would bet against the Eagles winning fewer than 11 games.

Let’s not act like this is the Redskins loading up on big names, the Eagles have been one of the best run organizations in sports for going on a decade. Maybe they’ll finally get the trophy to recognize that work.

Imagine no fantasy football drafts this August. Imagine no games come Sunday in September. And then imagine that continues through Halloween and the NBA season doesn’t even start. I’m not sure what I’d do with myself. I hope I wouldn’t turn to crime (shout out to Ray Lewis).

The NFL lockout is now more than 100 days old. I never thought I’d care as long as games weren’t affected but it’s starting to irritate me that they haven’t gotten a deal done yet. After all, the NFL is a booming, profitable league (It’s kind of the biggest thing in our country). And they are trying to change things according to their prognostications, not the present. It feels so unnecessary.

The NBA has a more serious situation at hand. The league is not nearly as profitable as it should be. In fact, it is the opposite of profitable. The system needs to be fixed. However, it needs to be fixed without alienating fans. I think this would be a good idea considering they are coming off the highest rated season in the history of the sport.

Imagine if the lockouts don’t get fixed. Personally, I’d rather not use my imagination. And my logical side says these guys can’t be so stubborn as to mess with such good things. (Plus, I’m an optimist.)

Besides, lockout talk is incredibly boring.

Last night there were guys taken from the U.S., Turkey, the Czech Republic, the Congo and more. This has become a common theme of the Draft, along with people grading things that have yet to be determined, declaring busts and praising upside.

Still, it appears many have yet to come to grips with the large foreign imprint on the NBA. They refuse to believe that international players are valuable and instead praise guys who stood out in college. Somehow they forget Mateen Cleaves, Dee Brown and Khalid El-Amin.

Of course, any reasonable person could counter with Darko Milicic, amongst many others. The truth is, busts come from everywhere. Darko was an international bust, Kwame Brown a straight out of high school bust and Adam Morrison a college bust.

Another truth is that the best pro prospects are one and done college players (since guys can’t come out of HS anymore) and international players. This year’s All Star Game featured 17 players who didn’t go to college, went to college for one year or were from overseas. For the most part, college players who are good enough to be studs in the pros don’t stay in college very long. Longer tenured college players often become contributors but are rarely building blocks.

It’s actually fairly easy to argue that the level of play overseas is stronger than the level of play in the NCAA. If we sent our best college players to play in the international tournaments, they’d get massacred. In fact, we send our very best pro players and still had to install a system requiring them to spend multiple Summers playing together just so the likes of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant could beat Spain.

Call them soft if you want but the top level foreign guys can ball. As for Artest, I’d rather he change his name to Scooby Doo or something.

What’s sadder than picking Darko before future Hall of Famers? How about the fact that I’m watching the 2003 NBA Draft. But that’s what this time year will do to me. (I suppose I could flip over to the U.S. Open but I’m pretty sure that’s a golf event.) The moral of this story is, Summer is great, for everything but sports.

Some might argue I’m forgetting about baseball. I am not. Say whatever you’d like about its entertainment value; one thing you cannot say is that individual games are of tremendous consequence. In fact, baseball is as tied into the weather and season as any sport. Going to the ballpark on a nice day is appealing. Still, in most cases you’re going more for the experience than the event.

I’m not wishing away the Summer. I like beaches. But Fall is when everything starts again for the sports world.

(I’m assuming the lockouts will be ended/averted. The NBA is doing too well right now and NFL players can’t afford to miss games. Guys have bills. And Antonio Cromartie has child support payments to make. Remember, I can name the entire Wu-Tang Clan faster than he can recite his kids’ names.)

But that doesn’t mean there aren’t explanations. The Mavericks won the title more than the Heat lost it. Whatever “IT” is, which is impossible to quantify, Dallas had “IT” this year. They also were the only team in the league good enough to beat the Heat because they used Miami’s strengths against them.

They had a suffocating defense scrambling by using its over aggressiveness to their advantage. And they made them pay by hitting shots; lots of ‘em. Then on the defensive end, Rick Carlisle employed a zone defense (which they ran more than any other team in the league). The zone discombobulated LeBron so much it caused rumors about his personal life. Dallas was simply, cliche as it may be, the better team. There’s a reason LeBron looked unclutch against the Mavs and not the Bulls or Celtics.

They exposed his and his team’s flaws (there are other people on the team, including Dwyane Wade). As much as LeBron and Wade got better together over the course of the season, neither is comfortable without the ball and neither is a catch and shoot guy. LeBron’s passivity may have been a result of giving up the rock and going to Wade who had the matchup advantage. They were taking turns against a team that shared. They are a work in progress. One could argue both on the court and off. LeBron deferred to Wade too much off it (seemingly looking for approval in press conferences), got yelled at by him on it and then deferred to everyone, failing to attack the hoop IN THE NBA FINALS! They make their teammates better but they need to learn to make each other better.

The Heat and LeBron failed. But their story is not yet complete. They are not failures yet. Remember when Dirk Nowitzki was considered a soft choker? Now he and his team are celebrating a well deserved championship.

(Oh, for those who enjoy reading this sentence…I was wrong. LeBron shrunk in the moment, whatever the reason. And I do think his psyche played into it, just not as much as the Dallas Mavericks did.)

Did all the talk get to him? Maybe. He can’t win for winning because an overall excellent effort in game three was met with criticism for not taking over and people were already trying to discredit him by labeling Dwyane Wade the Finals MVP. Perhaps there is a chance he was trying to prove (subconciously?) that he didn’t need to try to take over to win, that he could win in other ways and was therefore disengaged.

Is he worn out? Reasonable. He never sits in the 2nd half and has seemingly played forty-plus minutes in every playoff game. In fact, minutes-wise, he’s logged almost two full games more than Wade and Chris Bosh. Still, he’s too freakish an athlete for me to totally buy that.

Did he choke? That would seem silly considering his clutch numbers throughout his career and his numerous money games against Boston and Chicago. Those still count.

Is his relationship with Wade fracturing? This seems particularly absurd. However, as some would paint it, Wade is William Wallace and LeBron is a trembling puppy dog.

Or maybe there is no explanation, at least no non-baskeball one. Maybe he just had a bad game. Remember, we were looking for an explanation for Wade’s poor play against the Bulls. We were wondering if he was hurt. He looks fine now.

LeBron has had curious games before, most prominently game five against the Celtics last year (I would lump game three against them this year and game one against Chicago in the same category). They proved to be isolated events.

I’m betting that how he and his team respond to this curious performance will provide a much better explanation than any of us can conjure up.

But as entertaining as Shaq is off the court, it’d be a shame to let that overshadow what he did on it. He was amusing off the court, on it, he was dominant. So dominant that he probably stopped himself (free throw woes) more often than his opponents did. The dude made nearly 60% of his shots for his career. Yes, many of them were dunks but that’s because teams couldn’t stop him from getting dunks. I hate to break it to some people but the dunk is an effective shot. (How are you supposed to keep a 7-1, 325 lb. guy from going where he wants?)

Shaq stands alongside Hakeem Olajuwon as the greatest centers I have ever seen. And anyone who leaves him out of the top five centers ever is probably hating. In fact, his career player efficiency rating stands at third all time amongst all players.

They didn’t call him/he didn’t call himself Shaq Diesel for nothing.

Miami is going to win the NBA Finals for a similar reason. Dallas hasn’t seen anything like the Heat defense. The average total score in the Western Conference Finals was 206 points. The average total score in the Eastern Conference Finals was 177 points. I’d say that indicates one series was more highly contested at the defensive end than the other. At one point during game five of the WCF I found myself laughing at the stark difference in defensive intensity of Mavs-Thunder in comparison to Heat-Bulls.

Meanwhile, Miami just got done playing two of the three best field goal percentage D’s in the league (they are the other member of the top three). Playing the Mavs is going to feel like running on wet sand after being mired in quicksand (Dallas was 8th in Opp FG%, 11th so far in the playoffs).

The counter argument to this is the Dallas offense. They’ve got shooters. More importantly, they’ve got Dirk Nowitzki. Well, that argument works both ways. The Mavs have to deal with LeBron, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. They make up a pretty good offense themselves, they’ve just been fighting against elite opposition. The Heat were the only team in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Their balance may come through imbalance while Dallas’ comes through overall balance but that doesn’t mean the sum of Miami’s parts is not greater. They are the best team.

And then there’s that LeBron guy. Let’s see how Dirk likes it when he faces the same situation Rose did.

Heat in five.

Statistics are not perfect. There is no perfect statistic. For instance, Udonis Haslem was -11 during his time on the court in game two of the Eastern Conference Finals. Clearly he had a more positive impact than that. This can be shown with another statistic, zero. That’s how many offensive rebounds the Bulls had when Haslem was on the floor.

My point being (one that I have belabored), statistics are a better evaluative tool than simply what you think. This is because they are recorded history. They are what happened. They can be manipulated, they can be used with an agenda but they can also tell a larger story.

Haslem was -11 in 23 minutes. To me +/- is not a very useful stat in a one game sample size. Too many other factors come into play. However, I have used that very stat to argue against Derrick Rose as the MVP because the Bulls outscored opponents with Rose on the bench…for the entire season; a much larger sample size. Still, one may accuse me of only using that particular stat to support my argument.

Let’s move on to more cut and dry numbers. I say LeBron James (him again?) is a better jump shooter than Kobe Bryant. You may say blasphemy. You would be incorrect. It is actually a factual statement. LeBron shot a higher percentage than Kobe on jump shots this season. He shot a higher % on threes too. In fact, he shot better on mid-range jumpers than everyone not named Dirk Nowitzki and Ray Allen. Yet people will still argue against this as if it is an outrageous statement. The same way they’ll argue against LeBron being the most efficient player even though every statistical measure bares it out.

Using one stat as the basis of an argument or using statistics as your only argument is unwise. But arguing against fact is irrational. I often am reminded of Will Ferrell’s character in “Zoolander” when debating people on some of these topics. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills because the counter arguments are literally insane.

There is one stat that jumps out at me from the first game of the Eastern Conference Finals. That stat is 87 to 68. Those are the field goal attempts for the Bulls and Heat respectively. The Bulls took 19 more shots. They had 31 second chance points. That was more than the difference in the game.

We now know the question. Does Miami have the answer? They’ve had the answer for everything else. LeBron James and Dwyane Wade can’t play together…wrong. The Heat can’t close a close game…wrong. They can’t beat good teams…wrong. They can’t beat Boston…wrong. Something tells me they’ll be up to this challenge too.

However, maybe the Bulls are the team that is built to expose Miami’s weaknesses; namely everyone not named LeBron, Wade or Bosh. Chicago has four big guys who are better than any big on the Heat. They are long, energetic and versatile. And simply way more good.

A healthy Heat team could counter with Udonis Haslem. The guy playing the role of Udonis Haslem at the moment probably won’t pass the muster. They might be better off asking LeBron to play big and focusing on the glass. They’re definitely better off playing faster. I’m not sure the exact answer.

Whatever the answer, they’ve always had it. The Bulls just may be their trick question. (Or they could win game two and totally shift the narrative.)

It is easy to find failure if it is the only thing you are looking for. LeBron James turned the ball over with 19 seconds left in game four of Heat-Celtics. Therefore he failed. Therefore he is not clutch.

Not everyone shares that sentiment but I’ve certainly heard plenty of it. Did he fail in that specific instance? Sure. Even he would admit it. Did he fail in the clutch? Absolutely not.

Was it un-clutch when he carried the team offensively in the first half? Was it un-clutch when he hit the answer three in front of the Celtics bench after Boston had taken the lead? Was it un-clutch when he scored 11 of Miami’s final 13 points in the fourth quarter? Was it un-clutch when he scored or assisted on the first two baskets in overtime? Was it un-clutch when he took a big charge in the same overtime period or when he defended the final shot in regulation?…Seems pretty clutch to me.

If you want to believe LeBron is not clutch or that he can never be an all-time great player because he plays with Dwyane Wade, fine. Just know you are only going on what you think and say and not what is actually transpiring. The height of irrational reasoning. Not clutch. Or smart.

There goes Lundberg defending LeBron again.

The Lakers met their embarrassing demise for a myriad of reasons. 1. They cannot even pretend to stop dribble penetration. Derek Fisher is too old and the rest of their guards are too not good. 2. Pau Gasol was MIA and not with the Heat. I don’t know which rumors are true but I do know something was wrong with him. 3. Kobe Bryant is more jump shooter than anything else now. The Mavs were able to match up with him one on one with elder statesman Jason Kidd.

It’d be easy (and kind of fun) to blame it on Kobe and pile on him for being crushed in an elimination game again. It wouldn’t be right. He is no longer the best player in the game but he still has great value. Just not enough to carry a team. Even when he was at his best he either missed the playoffs or got knocked out in the first round trying to do it by himself. And with whatever version of Gasol that was out there, the Lakers did not have enough.

Barring some sort of miracle trade, I don’t know if they will again in the Kobe era. His run will end at five rings. Not too shabby (though you know it bothers him it is not quite Jordanesque). Still, it’s a ton of career collateral.

As for Phil Jackson, the ring on his big toe says enough.

The Boston Celtics already are and always will be tied into LeBron’s legacy. You could even argue they are the impetus for the formation of the current Miami Heat. Clearly LeBron realized he was never going to get past them with his Cavs squad. But they will also help determine what direction his legacy heads from here. Will the Celtics be like the Pistons were for Michael Jordan, the team he eventually had to hurdle in order to finally hoist the trophy or will they be the team that continually knocks him down a peg and keeps him in the ringless club along with other greats like Charles Barkley and Karl Malone?

The Celtics have a legacy at stake here too. This group will be remembered as a great team. They’ve already won a title and were within a few minutes of another. Still, if they can dispatch the Heatles and somehow snare another championship, the names Doc Rivers, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo will mean more than they already do; both individually and collectively.

The C’s have successfully suffocated individual players like LeBron and Kobe Bryant. They may be able to do the same to the LeBron, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh trio. If the other, much more not good members of the Heat can’t hit shots from the outside, they will. But it is up to LeBron and Wade to make sure they don’t. Both guys were eliminated by this same team (minus Kendrick Perkins of course) last year with LeBron suffering the lowest moment of his basketball career in the infamous game five. They should’ve seen enough of them by now to know how to attack their defense. Unless the Celtics D is simply Tyson-like and impregnable.

Either way, legacies will be shaped and careers partially defined by this 2nd round series, the biggest one I can remember. I suppose I’ll take Miami in seven but I’m not sure I believe it.

Game one was the best example and even then Chauncey Billups went down in the final minute. The series was over the second that happened. It was only exacerbated when Amar’e Stoudemire’s back transformed him into Bo Outlaw. Carmelo Anthony and the scrub brigade wasn’t a playoff worthy team and they would’ve been smoked by the likes of the Pacers and 76ers much less the Boston Celtics.

For Boston, I believe the winner of their inevitable series with the Heat will win the title. Especially now that going against Toney Douglas and the Knicks defense has fixed whatever was wrong with Rajon Rondo.

For New York, the future is bright because the core is there. The question now…is Mike D’Antoni the man to lead them toward said bright future? Because of the tumultuous roster he’s had and the bad timing with injuries, it’s unfair to fire him. But does that make it the wrong move? Is he the guy you believe will eventually lead you to a championship? Finger gun to head, I say no.

–Chris Paul is cold as ice. When healthy, he’s in my top five and far and away the best point guard in the league. I’d take him over Derrick Rose and Deron Williams without thinking about it (with a clean knee slate of course). The New Orleans Hornets have no business being tied with the Lakers. That’s all CP3.

–Derrick Rose is the most athletic point guard of all time. And he seems to have the ability to carry his team on his shoulders at the right moments. However, he’s going to have to shoot the ball better and take better shots (while getting his teammates involved) if the Bulls are going to be the threat their number one seed indicates they should be.

–At some point the Heat are going to make a last second shot, right? Well, they’ve made one. LeBron is 1-6 in the last five seconds to win or tie (Wade is 0-5). In fairness, Kevin Durant is 1-10 in the same situation. So, it’s oversimplifying things to put so much stock in those five seconds. The bigger deal is their slow starts and their lack of overall team production. But that’s not how the narrative is written and LeBron’s season (and reputation) will be defined by a handful of seconds if they/he don’t get it together.

–The Thunder are a legit title threat.

–The Grizz have a legit chance to beat the Spurs. In fact, I think they will.

–Nice to see a retro Brandon Roy performance. Clap for him.

–The next big non-lockout, non on the court NBA story will be the future destination of Dwight Howard. I see no basketball reason he would stay in Orlando. They don’t have the supporting cast around him and don’t have the resources to get one (Gilbert Arenas’ contract is the opposite of a resource). They may be wise to move him while they can get the most return.

Nearly every NBA champion had at least one mega star (most have had two or three). The exception that proves this rule is the 2004 Pistons. Those guys won behind exceptional balance and defense. And it’s not like they didn’t basically start five guys at an All Star level or better.

This year’s Denver Nuggets are a great story. They also play a fun style of basketball, ‘the right way’ as some would call it. Yet, they have no shot of making noise going forward in the playoffs (I’m not just typing this b/c they are down 2-0 to OKC…well, that is the reason I’m writing it now but I knew it before). They have no shot because they don’t have the player who creates his own shot. They don’t have their best player. Championship teams don’t boast Nene and Kenyon Martin as their most recognizable stars.

Basketball is a bit of a paradox. It’s the sport where both individual players and team chemistry have the greatest impact. In order to win, you need both. Just playing hard and together is not enough. Don’t blame me, it’s science.

Today news came out that LeBron’s mom was arrested for allegedly assaulting a parking valet. I haven’t tweeted about that. Many people have. The tone of those tweets and the reaction to the story are a tad unsettling. I get that people hate the guy (I’m still perplexed how deep the hate runs for some…over a TV show) but I thought it was in a good natured root against him sort of way for most. Perhaps it is, yet I get the sense there is a fairly large contingent who legitimately took joy in Gloria James’ arrest.

I’m not saying it’s not ok to joke about it. I hate when people do that and pass broad judgments from their high horses. I also don’t think any issue is that black and white. There are no rules about what is alright and what is off limit for jokes. That’s part of why we all like comedy. I’m sure I’ve made plenty of jokes about “touchy” subjects. I guess it’s a feel thing. If something is funny and seems like it is coming from a good natured place, it’s cool. If it’s not funny and feels mean spirited, it isn’t. (Whether it’s funny is the most important factor.) Impossibly subjective and inevitably hypocritical I know but that’s why some people are good at it and others aren’t.

I haven’t found anything funny enough or good natured enough to tweet about LeBron’s mom. Say what you want about LeBron the guy and his excessive use of the third person but to me, the most impressive thing about him off the court is that he’s been able to conduct himself the way he has considering his upbringing. His mom was sixteen when she had him, his father was an ex-con who wasn’t around and he wound up living with family friends and coaches for much of his youth. He went from those circumstances to being the youngest athlete ever thrust on to the public stage. A large jump and quite a bit of attention to deal with (not that there aren’t awesome perks to rapidly becoming rich and famous). Now he’s hanging out with Warren Buffett and launching partnerships with English soccer clubs. Pretty impressive; postgame press conference and Decision special gaffes notwithstanding.

When LeBron yelled at his mom to sit down during a game against the Celtics a few years ago (pictured above), I found that funny. A 26-year-old having to parent his own mother I don’t find very funny at all.

‘But we’ve seen it all before!’ Incorrect. I saw a handful of dunks that were completely unique. ‘But guys miss on their first attempt!’ Well, that’s because they’re attempting such absurdly impossible feats in order to satisfy the first complaint. Of course it has more impact when completed on the first try, that’s why DeMar Derozan’s second dunk may have been the best of the contest (that and the impossible athleticism displayed within), however, missing on the first couple tries does not take away from completing such phenomenal finishes.

I mean, there was a dunk from behind the free throw line, a dunk on two baskets, a dunk with three balls, a reverse windmill and a Vince Carter elbow dunk off a lob. Out of twelve dunks, all were impressive and some were spectacular. The worst dunk was over a car.

I didn’t think Blake Griffin should’ve won but that’s not important (and he’s like Hanzel…so damn hot right now). At the risk of sounding corny (virtual certainty), anyone who watched that won. The dunk contest is like anything else, some years are better than others and it’s only as good as the participants. But if you didn’t like this one, you simply do not like slam dunks.

I do.

–Part of me feels for the Cavs players and head coach Byron Scott. Another part of me is amused by their unparalleled futility; mainly because of the criticism lobbed at LeBron James and especially because of Dan Gilbert’s post “Decision” letter. I’m not sure LeBron’s value has ever been more clear and don’t think Gilbert’s letter could look more ridiculous. He should write a new letter vowing that the Cavs will win a game before LeBron wins a title.

–When I think of the Utah Jazz, I think of three people…John Stockton, Karl Malone and Jerry Sloan. They’re all gone and now I think nothing of the Utah Jazz, especially once Deron Williams leaves.

–Brett Favre is rumored to appear on “Dancing with the Stars”. This is the greatest news ever. I wonder if they’ll let him dance in Wranglers.

–The NFL owners didn’t do themselves any favors in the public eye by walking out on a meeting with players. The owners are the true rich guys in this dispute and figuratively taking their ball and going home to their mansions certainly makes them look like the babies in this dispute, even if that isn’t the case. I empathize with the plight of the players but think I fall on the side of most everyone, I don’t care too much about this stuff unless it impacts games. If that happens, everyone’s wrong.

–It’s good to be Justin Bieber. I refuse to hate on the little guy, he’s doing big things. He’s got girls fawning over him, hit records, a sure to be hit movie and somehow, street cred. He’ll even be playing in the NBA Celebrity All Star Game. I think they should have the celebrity team play the Cavs.

–Aaron Rodgers is clearly the star of the moment. Dude is bona fide. He’s athletic, tough and throws absolute darts. If it wasn’t for some drops he put right on the hands of receivers, the Packers may have run away with the game earlier. But remember, it’s hard to get back to where he is right now. After last season, many people would have called Drew Brees the best quarterback in the world. For now, Rodgers has put himself into the conversation and can wear his Super Bowl ring and championship belt proudly.

–You know you are a star when you’re retired (allegedly), coming off a terrible season, are not directly involved in the game and yet still get mentioned by every talking head. Here’s to you Brett Favre.

–Sometimes you try to say something insightful and there is nothing there. The turnovers, as they often are, were the difference. The Steelers turned it over three times. The Packers scored 21 points off of turnovers. Pretty simple.

–The Super Bowl is a planned event. Somehow you’d think the host city would be aware of that. Apparently not. The streets were deserted leading up to the game and there weren’t enough seats when the game started, proving once again that most of the world works at a C- level.

–I’m not sure I know all the words to the National Anthem but I’m pretty sure I would have them down if I was performing it at the Super Bowl. Poor Christina Aguilera. Only that movie she made with Cher could be worse.

–I’m not sure I can properly address the Black Eyed Peas performance. I will say this. It was interesting. It felt like a Pepsi commercial featuring intergalactic, hip-pop Care Bears.

The New York Knicks are the most valuable franchise in the NBA. It’s incredible if you think about it. They’ve been putrid for ten years and with the first glimmer of hope, they pass the Lakers. We know this because monetary value is measurable.

Jay-Z was once asked to comment on Baby from Cash Money claiming that Lil’ Wayne was a better rapper and that they had more money than he does. He responded appropriately. He said the former was a matter of opinion but the latter could be checked. Peep Forbes.

What the heck am I getting at? Well, the value of franchises cannot be disputed. But one thing that is always disputed is the value of players. That is a matter of opinion and everyone seems to have an opinion on what “Most Valuable Player” actually means. And now that the NBA season is at its midpoint, the MVP chatter has begun.

To me, the most valuable player is the best player. The best player inherently has the most value. Value should equate somehow to impact on wins and losses. The best should have the most. Michael Jordan was the MVP every year he played.

There are many guys currently deserving of being in the discussion. Derrick Rose is averaging 25 points and 8 assists and has led the Bulls to the third best record in the East despite extended absences from Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah. Amar’e Stoudemire has made the Knicks relevant again and with some help has taken a team that was 18-26 at this time last year to 23-21 this year. Meanwhile, his former team is four games below .500 after checking in at six games above it a year ago. Dwight Howard is again a dominating defensive presence and again the Orlando Magic are a threat in the East with just one true star. Kobe Bryant and the Lakers are rounding back into form and Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have the Thunder near the top of the West. Then there is Chris Paul. The New Orleans Hornets are 31-16. They have no business being there, Paul has to get lion’s share of credit for that and could deserve the trophy at this moment.

However, when the talcum powder clears, I imagine that the most valuable player should follow the same path it has the past two years. Call me biased if you want and I severely doubt the writers will give it to him (both because he is unliked and because he teamed up with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh) but LeBron James is still the best player in basketball.

I’d bet by the end of the season the Heat have the best record in the league (if not, they’ll be right there). Meanwhile, the team that finished with the best record in the last two seasons is a rancid mess. The Cleveland Cavaliers have lost 18 in a row (LeBron erased the pride they were playing with at the beginning of the year). They are 8-37. Through 45 games a season ago, they were 34-11. That’s a greater % drop than the Bulls had the year after they lost Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Dennis Rodman and Phil Jackson. There’s only one major reason for that.

Like it or not, LeBron James has the greatest impact on wins and losses. As a result he probably will be the player deserving of being dubbed most valuable after the 82nd game has concluded.

This perplexes me. What about beating the Jets correlates to a shift in his character? And why is it being made out like Roethlisberger has overcome so much? Sometimes there doesn’t have to be a story. Because the story with Ben appears the same to me.

Ben Roethlisberger is a great quarterback. He is tough, difficult to bring down, makes plays that aren’t there and most of all, is super clutch. None of that has changed. That’s how he’s always been. When you add in an elite defense and respected figures at the head coaching position, you have the reason he’s headed to his third Super Bowl.

I’m not saying Roethlisberger isn’t a different dude than he was just a few months ago. He could be. I simply have no idea. All I know is what I saw Sunday did nothing to prove that. What I’ve seen this postseason has just reinforced what I already knew about him.

Big Ben is who we thought he was as a football player, a winner. That means nothing, one way or the other, about who he is off the field.

Steelers (-3) over Ravens: Smash-mouth football! A good ol’ fashioned slobberknocker! A donnybrook! I’d like to make fun of the cliche phrases that will be used to describe this game, except they’re true. My favorite type of games are low scoring, hard-hitting ones where points feel like they are impossible to get. There are low-scoring games that are absurdly poorly played and there are high-scoring games where the same is true (see Seahawks-Saints). Then there are games like this one, likely to be low-scoring, yet played at the highest level. I trust Ben Roethlisberger more than I trust Joe Flacco (on the football field at least) and I like the Steelers defense over the Ravens defense. Those minor differences will be the difference.

Seattle (+10) over Chicago: I’m not sure who is more likely to throw multiple picks in this game: Matt Hasselbeck or Jay Cutler? Cutler would frighten me as a Bears fan and Seattle has played well a few weeks in a row now. That’s enough for me to pick them to cover. However, the Bears defense against the Seahawks offense will likely be too much for them to overcome.

Green Bay (+2.5) over Atlanta: The Packers are +148 on the season. That puts them second behind the Patriots in point differential. Now that they have some semblance of a running game, they actually might be the second best team in the league.

New England (-9) over New York Jets: Antonio Cromartie can curse out Tom Brady, Brady can smugly dismiss him, Rex can ask for a duel with Belichick and Wes Welker can say the word foot a lot. None of that matters. What really matters is that the Patriots are built to expose the Jets flaws. I loved the Jets gameplan against the Colts but they won’t be able to beat the Pats without getting to Brady. In order for the Jets to win, they’ll likely have to play even better and Mark Sanchez will have to be at his best (a risky proposition). The Patriots have beaten the Jets, the Colts, the Ravens, the Steelers, the Bears and the Packers; some of them by very wide margins. They are the best team, none of the other storylines matter. The foot soldiers take this one.